Brewers vs Cubs Odds
| Milwaukee Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -205 | 7.5 +105o / -125u | +100 |
| Chicago Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +170 | 7.5 +105o / -125u | -120 |
Hayden Wesneski has been electric for the Chicago Cubs. He doesn't rack up a ton of strikeouts, but he does limit walks, induce ground balls and prevent hard-hit balls. His opponent will be Joe Ross and the Milwaukee Brewers. Ross has been pretty solid this season. He's given up a good number of hits, but has kept the hard contact to a minimum.
The Brewers have both the better lineup against right-handed pitching and the better bullpen, so they should have what they need to win on the road at Wrigley Field for the series opener on Friday.
On that note, let's get to my Brewers vs Cubs prediction.
Milwaukee Brewers
Ross owns an above-average ground-ball rate, which is always encouraging at Wrigley Field and his Average Exit Velocity is 87.2 mph. It's also encouraging that his xERA is well under 4.00, even though his ERA is over 5.00 — a sign that positive regression is heading his way.
Offensively, the Brewers’ hitting has been elite against righties. They own a 124 wRC+ and are trailing only the Los Angeles Dodgers with a 22.7% strikeout rate and a 9% walk rate. Milwaukee has six active hitters with a xwOBA above .330 and Joey Wiemer is right there too, also above .310.
The Brewers have the better bullpen and the starter likely to go deeper in this game. Milwaukee's bullpen xFIP is below 4.00 with over 120 innings logged. The Brewers have five relievers with an xFIP under 4.00, which should be more than enough to get the job done after Ross exits.
Chicago Cubs
Wesneski has better peripherals than Ross. He's only walked one hitter in three appearances, has struck out six and given up just one earned run. His Hard-Hit Rate and Average Exit Velocity are elite, though he was up near 89 mph last year. Perhaps, he's figured some things out, though his 1.45 xERA may not last — especially against a lineup like Milwaukee's. After all, Wesneski's sample size is small as he's pitched just 10 1/3 innings this season.
The Cubs are about average against right-handed pitching. They have a 93 wRC+ with a 24.1% strikeout rate and a walk rate just over 9%. They also have four batters above a .320 xwOBA. Cody Bellinger and Seiya Suzuki both being on the Injured List greatly impacts the power in this lineup. Getting Patrick Wisdom back has helped, but this lineup is lacking at the moment.
The Cubs' relief staff has a 4.43 xFIP with over 120 innings pitched. Walks have been a glaring issue (11%), but they do have a few arms with an xFIP below 4.00.
Brewers vs. Cubs
Betting Pick & Prediction
The Brewers have all of the ingredients to win this game. The Cubs are missing too many key pieces offensively and Joe Ross can pitch deeper into this game than Wesneski. Additionally, the Brewers have the better bullpen.
Take Milwaukee to win and play them to -120.
