Brewers vs Dodgers on Saturday night features a pair of former All-Stars on the mound as Freddy Peralta takes the ball for the Brewers and James Paxton takes the ball for the Dodgers in the second game of this series at Dodgers Stadium.
Will Smith hammered a trio of homers in the series opener, and while that probably won't happen in Game 2, it should be a solid game, that I crafted an SGP for. Check out my Brewers vs Dodgers same game parlay below, which features picks for Peralta, William Contreras and more.
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
Brewers vs Dodgers MLB Same Game Parlay Picks
- Brewers ML (-102)
- William Contreras 2+ total bases (-115)
- Freddy Peralta 7+ strikeouts (-125)
Parlay Odds: +402 (FanDuel)
Brewers ML (-102)
I’ve gone back and forth on this game quite a bit. I ultimately decided Freddy Peralta could dominate this struggling Dodgers lineup. Since Peralta had a rough three-start stretch in early June, he’s turned in three consecutive strong starts — holding the Angels, Rangers and Cubs to two or fewer runs.
Peralta's ERA is 3.83, but his FIP is 3.54. The biggest key for Peralta is limiting walks, which he allows at a 3.16 B/9 clip. He's always been a strikeout machine, posting 11.49 K/9 in 2024. There's a lot to like about Peralta. He ranks in the 91st percentile in average exit velo, 93% in whiff rate and 92% in K rate. Soft contact and punching out batters. That's fun!
The Dodgers' lineup showed warts in the last couple of series. They just don’t have the same amount of firepower – or lineup depth – without Mookie Betts. The upper quadrant of the lineup is stout with Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, Will Smith and Teoscar Hernandez. Then, it’s shaky from the 5-9 spots in the lineup. The Dodgers need youngsters, Miguel Vargas, Andy Pages, and Gavin Lux to capitalize on the stars reaching base to put pressure on Peralta.
My main reason for backing the Brewers is fading James Paxton. I don’t quite understand why Paxton is pitching for the Dodgers, but they seem hellbent on running him out until Walker Buehler and Clayton Kershaw return.
Nothing about Paxton's profile is promising. Paxton enters Saturday's start with a shockingly low 4.28 ERA, given his ugly metrics. It's only a matter of time until Paxton's 4.81 FIP and 5.21 xFIP haunts him. Despite diminished velocity, Paxton still attacks with his fastball which sits around 93 mph, and his stuff looks mediocre, backed up by his 73 stuff +. He walks batters more than ever and allows more fly balls, but fewer homers. Something isn't adding up here.
The Brewers' offense struggles against southpaws, ranking 20th in wRC+ against them this year. It'll be even worse with Joey Ortiz on the shelf, but Rhys Hoskins and Willy Adames returning to reality versus lefties is enough to change the Brewers' fortune.
Willy Contreras 2+ Total Bases (-115)
For the first prop of the SGP, I'm rolling with a Brewers hitter that crushes lefty pitching. That hitter is catcher William Contreras, who owns a 140 wRC+ and bats over .340 facing lefties. Contreras is easily one of the better hitting catchers in the sport, and an integral part of the Brewers offensive formula.
Contreras has some promising batted ball metrics, ranking 91st percentile in average exit velo, 79th percentile in xSLG and 92nd in hard-hit rate. If Paxton doesn't locate his fastball high and inside on Contreras, he could take advantage for a homer into the Dodger stadium seats.
Contreras is 11-for-30 in his past seven games with an OBP over .410 and SLG over .510. He's on a heater, and I can't see it changing in this fortuitous matchup.
Freddy Peralta 7+ Strikeouts (-125)
I touched on Freddy Peralta's success striking out batters early, and it should continue here. He'll have several candidates to punch out, including Shohei Ohtani, who's struck out in over 50% of his ABs in the past week. He'll also have chances to strike out Chris Taylor (32% K rate), Teoscar Hernandez (28% K rate), Andy Pages (25% K rate), Gavin Lux (21% K rate) and possibly James Outman, who's back in the bigs. This Dodgers lineup is very susceptible right now, and facing Peralta isn't an ideal way to fix it.
Peralta struck out 7+ batters in three of his past six starts, including eight strikeouts in two of his past three starts.
The 2021 All-Star, Peralta has always been a punch out machine with an 11.2 K/9, and he's taken on a larger role since the Brewers dealt Corbin Burnes to the Orioles. He's fully forming into an ace, and shutting down the World Series favorites will show why he's an ace.
