Brewers vs. Reds Odds
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -190 | 9.5 -110 / -110 | -1.5 -125 |
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+160 | 9.5 -110/ -110 | +1.5 +105 |
Brandon Williamson has not had the greatest start to his Cincinnati Reds tenure, but on Friday he is lucky to be facing the Milwaukee Brewers, who cannot hit left-handed pitching whatsoever.
The Brewers will counter with Corbin Burnes on the mound in this NL Central matchup. Burnes is much more well known and consistent enough to miss hard contact when the Brew Crew needs him most.
Both of these bullpens have had questionable moments, but after diving more deeply into their underlying statistics, they have the artillery needed to close out games.
Pitching should reign supreme in this matchup, but does one side have the edge on Friday in Brewers vs. Reds?
Milwaukee Brewers
Burnes has been a fixture of the Milwaukee rotation for years. He currently has a 3.67 ERA against a 3.79 xERA, so expectations are right in line with results. He ranks around the middle of the league in Walk Rate and Strikeout Rate but has been surging as of late. His 22.3% Strikeout Rate is mainly down because of earlier starts in the season. He recorded at least five strikeouts in every start in May. He also excels at producing weak contact, ranking in the 75th percentile in Average Exit Velocity and the 69th percentile in Hard-hit Rate.
The Brewers are an abysmal hitting team. Since May 1, they have owned a .629 OPS and a 74 wRC+ with a 28.1% Strikeout Rate off of lefties, and they are facing one in Williamson. In the last week, these numbers have actually dropped to a 63 wRC+ and a .547 OPS.
Jesse Winker and Willy Adames are now on the Injured List, so the freefall may not be over yet. Luis Urías should return next week from a 60-day stint, but losing Garrett Mitchell to a shoulder injury also did not help this lineup. They only have three active players above a .330 xwOBA, so the bottom of the lineup will not be too effective.
In relief, the Brewers rank 20th with a 4.44 xFIP since May 1. They have four arms under a 4.00 xFIP, so they should be serviceable behind Burnes, who can pitch deep into games.
Cincinnati Reds
Williamson has made four starts and now has allowed eight earned runs over 14 1/3 innings pitched. This is not ideal, as he is walking a ton of hitters. Hitters are also averaging a 90.9 MPH Average Exit Velocity against him. His best start came on the road at Colorado, oddly enough, so he has the propensity to hold teams in check. He is the bigger concern of the starters in this game for under bettors, but Milwaukee has trouble with southpaws, so he should be fine.
The Reds have not hit righties well since May 1. They have a 92 wRC+ with a .725 OPS, so they are better than the Brewers in this matchup, but they also have to face a tougher starting pitcher in Burnes. In the last week, the Reds have a 130 wRC+ off of righties, though. This is something to be aware of, but this is a product of a facing a weak Cubs and Red Sox rotation.
The Reds bullpen has been weaker than that of the Brewers. Much of this is due to injuries to Tony Santillan, Tejay Antone, Reiver Sanmartin, Vladimir Gutierrez, Derek Law and Casey Legumina. Their depth has been tested, but they have a few arms to pitch behind Williamson, assuming he can go at least four innings, which he has done in each outing.
Brewers vs. Reds Betting Pick
Neither of these teams should be able to hit the opposing starting pitcher. Williamson is clearly the weaker of the two, but Milwaukee has been cold with the bats.
Cincy has started to heat up, but against weaker pitchers. This sets up a sell-high spot on the Reds bats, Burnes should be fine against them.
As for the bullpens, both teams have enough options to keep runners off of the base paths. Take the under at 9.5 (-110), and play it to 9 (-120).
Pick: Under 9.5 (-110) | Play to 9 (-120) |
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