Brewers vs. Reds Odds, Pick
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-108 | 9 -114/ -106 | -1.5 +146 |
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-108 | 9 -114 /-106 | +1.5 -178 |
The Cincinnati Reds are scuffling a bit after losing two of three games to the New York Mets over the weekend. There is a quick turnaround for the Reds as they welcome the Milwaukee Brewers into town on Monday evening for a four-game set.
Right-hander Graham Ashcraft for the Reds will take on Brewers southpaw Aaron Ashby, who will be making his first start of the year. The Brewers are coming off an impressive homestand, as they are off to a 6-2 start.
Find my Brewers vs. Reds pick and MLB prediction for today's matchup below.
Milwaukee Brewers
The Brew Crew flew under the radar entering the 2024 season, as many expected them to be the afterthought in the NL Central. With so much excitement surrounding the Reds and Pirates, the Brewers are looking to make some noise and make a potential playoff push.
The lefty Ashby gets the ball for the first game of the series, and he is an interesting pitcher to keep an eye on throughout the season. Ashby did not pitch at all last year while he recovered from shoulder surgery.
In his short stint in the big leagues, Ashby has shown that he has an electric arsenal at his disposal. From 2021-2022, Ashby averaged nearly 11Ks/9 with a 58% Ground Ball Rate.
The issue with Ashby is he struggles with command at times, as he averaged nearly 3.5 BBs/9 over that stretch. However, his xFIP in those two seasons was in the low 3s, so there is a lot to be excited about for the left-hander.
Ashby could be on a pitch count in his first start, but I expect him to have a great first start. The Reds might have a lot of young talent, but right now they are dead last in Strikeout Rate in the majors.
Offensively, the hitter to watch in the matchup is catcher William Contreras. Contreras is red hot at the plate right now, and he is coming off a 4-5 performance with five RBIs on Sunday afternoon.
He is also 5-8 in his career against Ashcraft, so he will be leading the charge once again for the offense. Overall, the Brewers are hitting for a .327 average and over a 1.000 OPS against Ashcraft over 55 at-bats, so there is a lot to like in the matchup.
Cincinnati Reds
The Reds walked away from their weekend series against the Mets disappointedly as they lost two close ballgames. The offense did not show up on Friday and Sunday, resulting in two one-run losses.
It is a long season, but some of the offensive numbers that the Reds have compiled are disappointing. As mentioned above, they are dead last in Strikeout Rate and are hitting .242 as a team to begin the year.
The Reds also have limited experience against Ashby in his short career at a combined 3-for-7 as a team. The lone Reds batter who has been consistent to start the year is Spencer Steer, who is off to a terrific start.
Steer is batting a scorching .406 with three home runs and 12 RBIs as he draws a favorable matchup against Ashby today. Elly De La Cruz had his 13-game hitting streak (dating back to last season) snapped on Sunday and continues to pile up a ton of strikeouts at the dish.
For Ashcraft, there is a lot of potential in the 26-year-old hurler, but his inconsistency missing bats is concerning. Primarily a ground-ball pitcher, Ashcraft has the pitch arsenal to generate more swings and misses, but it seems like he has been struggling to put hitters away over the last two seasons.
Brewers vs. Reds
Betting Pick & Prediction
I don't like the state of the Reds offense at the moment, and even if Ashcraft spins a gem, I cannot confidently back them in this game.
The fact we are getting nearly even money on the Brewers tonight is a steal. I like the offense's matchup against Ashcraft, and Ashby is flying under the radar because he did not pitch last season.
Even if he is limited to a pitch count, I expect Ashby to shine and flash the electric arsenal at his disposal that was on display during the 2021 and 2022 seasons. If he returns to form, there is no arguing that he has good fortune coming his way.
I'd recommend taking the Brewers moneyline at -108, and I like the idea of sprinkling their run line at -1.5 for +150 as well.
