Brewers vs. Rockies Odds, Pick
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-156 | 11.5 -104 / -118 | -1.5 -104 |
| Rockies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+132 | 11.5 -104 / -118 | +1.5 -115 |
The Brewers will begin a four-game set at Coors Field as they sit 6.5 games up over the Cardinals in the NL Central and have a 23-21 record on the road. Monday's start will go to Bryse Wilson, who holds an ERA of 3.89 this season but has struggled to an ERA of 5.19.
The Rockies have struggled to a 16-24 record at Coors Field this season and are underdogs once again with Austin Gomber set to pitch Monday. Gomber has pitched to a 4.83 ERA this season, including a surprising 3.57 ERA at Coors Field. So, let's get to my Brewers vs. Rockies pick.
Milwaukee Brewers
Given most of his underlying metrics, Wilson appears to be slightly overvalued based on his 3.89 ERA. He's pitched to an xERA of 4.65 this season with an xFIP of 4.65.
He holds a Stuff+ rating of 92 and a Location+ rating of 102. He owns a K/BB ratio of just 2.27 and has struck out just 19% of batters faced.
In five starts in the month of June, Wilson pitched to an xBA of .268 and struck out 18% of batters faced.
Over the last 30 days, Brewers relievers own an ERA of 3.14, which is the fourth-best mark in the MLB over that span. They own an xFIP of 3.97 in that span.
The Brewers' offense enters this matchup in lesser form than earlier in the season, as they've hit to a wRC+ of only 95 over the last 30 days and struck out 21.9% of the time.
They also feature significantly worse splits against left-handed pitching, as they've hit to a wRC+ of just 79 against lefties over the last 30 days.
Joey Ortiz was held out of a third straight game on Sunday due to neck soreness, but he's likely nearing a return based upon his ability to pinch run in Saturday's matchup.
Colorado Rockies
While Gomber has pitched to a 3.17 ERA at Coors Field so far, it doesn't appear overly likely that he'll pitch anywhere near that mark the rest of the way. He's pitched to a 4.83 xFIP at home and doesn't seem overly likely to sustain a .223 BABIP at home.
Gomber has allowed an xERA of 4.87 this season, with an xFIP of 4.52. He owns a K/BB ratio of 2.33 and a whiff rate of just 19.8%. He owns a Stuff+ rating of 80, with a Location+ rating of 103.
Since the start of last season, Gomber has a strikeout rate of just 13% with RISP, which is the second-lowest mark of any pitcher to throw over 95 innings. Since last season, batters are hitting .295 versus Gomber at Coors Field.
The Rockies have hit to a wRC+ of 70 versus right-handed pitching over the last 30 days and have struck out 25.6% of the time.
Brewers vs. Rockies
Betting Pick & Prediction
The Brewers should be well situated to continue building their division lead in this matchup, as Gomber appears to be one of the worst regular starters in the NL. Gomber has been in considerably lesser form recently, and it seems hard to expect that to change given the quality of his stuff.
Wilson could be a pitcher to fade in the near future and likely is not as strong as his ERA suggests. Even still, it appears that the Brewers are worthy of being bigger favorites than -150 in this matchup.
The Brewers also hold a considerable bullpen advantage, which could be particularly relevant in this matchup between two soft starters at Coors Field.
Pick: Brewers Moneyline -150 (Play to -155)
