Cardinals vs. Dodgers Odds
| Cardinals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -104 | 8.5 -120o / -102u | +188 |
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -115 | 8.5 -120o / -102u | -225 |
Here's everything you need to know about Cardinals vs Dodgers on Friday, March 29 — including odds and a prediction.
The Dodgers lineup has been true to form in a tiny three-game sample, as they have hit .311 and put up 7.6 runs per game. They will hand the ball to 24-year-old righty Bobby Miller, who pitched to an ERA of 3.76 across 124 1/3 innings as a rookie in 2023.
Zack Thompson will toe the rubber for the Cardinals Friday after grabbing a spot in the rotation due to Sonny Gray's hamstring injury. The 26-year-old lefty put up an ERA of 4.48 in 66 1/3 innings in 2023.
Here's my Cardinals vs Dodgers preview and pick for Friday.
St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals made bolstering their starting rotation a priority this offseason, as it was far from what it has been historically in 2023. Gray should be a difference maker, but bets on Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson could certainly go either way.
One reason the rotation could overachieve expectations would be a better-than-expected season from Thompson, who pitched well in Spring Training, posting a 2.81 ERA and 1.06 WHIP across 16 innings.
Thompson adjusted his arsenal, mixing in a fork-changeup that rates out quite well. In 2023, batters hit .327 off of his fastball, and the 2% of the time he used his former changeup batters slugged .939. Thompson will hope mixing in a quality changeup could work to batters off of his weak fastballs.
Thompson pitched to a Stuff+ of just 79 in 2023, but located well, with a rating of 101. Steamer is the most bullish public model in projecting him to pitch to an ERA of 4.10, while The BAT is at the high end in projecting an ERA of 4.45.
The Cardinals made no major adjustments to their lineup this offseason, and will be counting on bigger campaigns from players already in house. Nolan Arenado hit to a wRC+ of only 107 last year, and Paul Goldschmidt's 122 rating was his worst since 2019.
We could see steps forward from talented youngstars Nolan Gorman, Jordan Walker and Lars Nootbaar as well.
The Cardinals' lineup projects to be better than average, and is the main reason they are favored to win the NL division crown at +145.
In 2023, the Cardinals were the ninth-most productive team versus right-handed pitching. They hit to a wRC+ of 109, and struck out just 21.1% of the time.
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Los Angeles Dodgers
It's been all-systems-go for the Dodgers' absurdly stacked lineup through three games. Two of those matchups were at the Gocheok SkyDome in Seoul, South Korea, which would likely prove to be a favorable ballpark in terms of batting conditions. Still, the Dodgers have hit to a wRC+ of 139, and batted .311 as a team.
Despite the noise off the field, Shohei Ohtani went 2-for-3 yesterday with a walk.
We know Ohtani, Freddie Freeman and Mookie Betts are going to post elite results at the top of the order, and that has been true so far.
What the Dodgers get out of Teoscar Hernandez is a little more up in the air, but Hernandez's addition could significantly bolster the teams splits versus lefties such as Thompson. Hernandez slugged .510 versus lefties in 2023, .638 in 2022 and .744 in 2021.
The Dodgers were only the seventh-best team in MLB last year versus left-handed pitching with a wRC+ of 114.
Miller is priced as the 13th Cy Young favorite at +3000, and had an ADP of 74 in Yahoo baseball leagues this season. There is a lot of hype surrounding the 26-year-old this season, and it's easy to see why.
In 80 1/3 innings after the All-Star break last season, Miller pitched to an ERA of 3.36 with a WHIP of only 1.06. His strikeout rate climbed to 24.9% in that span. Miller owned a 123 Stuff+ rating in 2023, with a Location+ of 102.
Cardinals vs. Dodgers
Betting Pick & Prediction
Miller has the potential to be one of the league's best starters this season. Not only does he boast incredible stuff, but he was dominant in terms of actual results in last season's back half. That can be taken as more of an indicator for a rookie.
Thompson could actually be entering the season somewhat underrated himself. He has adjusted his arsenal, and found solid results throughout spring training.
Even still, the Dodgers hold a significant starting pitching edge with Miller in this matchup.
The Dodgers' lineup has looked as absurdly dominant as most observers expected in their opening three games, and could potentially go down as a historically strong unit.
Backing the Dodgers to cover the run-line will be one of the most popular bets on the board today, and probably most other days this season. While backing the Dodgers is obviously the square way to target this game, I still question if in a month Dodgers games with Miller starting might have far more absurd prices.
Getting the Dodgers at -118 to cover -1.5 in this pitching matchup could prove to be somewhat of an early season number, and I believe there is value betting Los Angeles down to -125.
