A pair of right-handers are set to square off on Friday Night at Citizens Bank Park as Miles Mikolas is slated to take the mound for the Cardinals against the Phillies' Aaron Nola.
Let's dive into my my Cardinals vs Phillies same game parlay for Friday night, which features three legs that include a moneyline and player props for Mikolas and Nola.
Here's my Cardinals vs Phillies Friday Parlay.
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
Cardinals vs Phillies Same Game Parlay
- Miles Mikolas Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-125)
- Aaron Nola Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+100)
- Phillies ML (-180)
- Parlay Odds: +355 via DraftKings
Miles Mikolas Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-125)
It's been a disastrous start to the campaign for Mikolas, who is 3-5 with a fade-worthy 5.64 ERA and 1.36 WHIP. His underlying metrics suggest positive regression is unlikely, as the right-hander ranks in the 28th percentile or lower in xERA, xBA, barrel rate and hard-hit rate.
Specifically, we are going to fade Mikolas in the strikeout department. He ranks in the 38th percentile in chase rate, fifth percentile in whiff rate and 22nd percentile in strikeout rate. You can currently find his strikeout prop at 4.5, a total he has failed to surpass in four of his past five starts.
These strikeout woes are likely to continue against Philadelphia, a team he is 2-3 against through eight career meetings with a 4.26 ERA. Mikolas has recorded four or fewer strikeouts in six of those eight outings.
Aaron Nola Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+100)
Meanwhile, Nola looks to continue his dominant start to the campaign. Through 11 starts, the right-hander is 6-2 with a commanding 3.04 ERA and 1.06 WHIP.
His underlying metrics suggest regression shouldn't be too big of a concern, given he ranks in the top half of the league in xERA, average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate.
Specifically, we're going to back Nola in the strikeout department, as he ranks in the 78th percentile in chase rate and 54th percentile in strikeout rate.
This success is likely to continue against St. Louis, a team Nola is 7-3 against with a 2.54 ERA through 12 career meetings. He recorded seven or more strikeouts in eight of those 12 outings.
That trend is likely to continue Friday, given the Cardinals rank 24th in the league this season in strikeout rate when facing right-handed pitching. Through 146 combined career plate appearances against Nola, this current St. Louis lineup possesses fade-worthy 25.3% strikeout rate and 23% whiff rate.
Phillies ML (-180)
If we're fading Mikolas while simultaneously backing Nola, then a highly correlated outcome would be the Phillies winning this game.
Philadelphia is just simply the better team across the board. We have already covered the starting pitching matchup, but the Phillies' relief pitching also paces St. Louis' in ERA, FIP and xFIP.
Not only do they boast the stronger pitching staff, but the gap in lineups is even wider. This season, Philadelphia outranks the Cardinals in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, home runs and stolen bases.
Add in home-field advantage, and there is little reason to distrust Nola and company on Friday.
