The Philadelphia Phillies look to finish off their sweep of the St. Louis Cardinals this Sunday, and will look to continue their success atop the National League.
Taijuan Walker takes the mound for Philadelphia tonight, looking to bounce back from a tough May. His ERA (5.51) and alarming underlying metrics continue to be a concern.
Meanwhile, St. Louis looks to avoid a sweep by turning to veteran right-hander Lance Lynn. He has been trending well of late, with quality starts in each of his last two.
Read below for my Cardinals vs Phillies MLB Parlay for Sunday Night Baseball.
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
Cardinals vs Phillies Same Game Parlay: Sunday, June 2
- Paul Goldschmidt Over 1.5 Total Bases (+105)
- Alec Bohm Over 1.5 Total Bases (-115)
- Over 7.5 Runs (-225)
Parlay Odds: +425 (bet365)
Paul Goldschmidt Over 1.5 Total Bases (+105)
Cardinals vs. Phillies | 7:10 p.m. ET, ESPN
It’s still a shock that Taijuan Walker is in the Phillies rotation. His xERA is in the bottom 5% of all pitchers (6.17) and has been absolutely crushed by the opposition. He isn’t generating ground balls like years past and has been barreled at a career-worst 14.3% rate.
Let’s start the fade of Walker with a Paul Goldschmidt total bases prop. He has been absolutely crushing the ball of late. He has both his hard-hit and fly-ball rate rise over the last couple of weeks and finally looks more himself at the plate.
Over the last 15 days, Goldschmidt is hitting .250 but has three home runs and five doubles (75% extra-base hit rate) in that span. He has found success in his career vs. Walker, too, with a .500 average and 80% extra-base hit rate.
Despite his season-long struggles, Goldschmidt still ranks in the 73rd percentile in hard-hit rate. He has also underperformed when it comes to expected metrics.
Pair Walker's struggles with Goldschmidt's power surge and the wind blowing out at Citizens Bank Park, and taking his total bases is the way to go.
Alec Bohm Over 1.5 Total Bases (-115)
Cardinals vs. Phillies | 7:10 p.m. ET, ESPN
Rather than going with the obvious choice of Bryce Harper, I’m targeting one of the best pure hitters in baseball. Harper has walked over a third of his plate appearances against Lance Lynn, which is always a fear in total base bets.
Lance Lynn is a league-average pitcher and he has seen his strikeout rate decline for the fourth straight season. He continues to get barreled at a high rate (9.4%) and has overperformed to date (3.45 ERA, 4.30 xFIP).
Bohm is in the 97th percentile in xBA (.312) this season and has seen his power numbers improve, too. His xSLG borders the .500 mark all while he’s striking out at a career-low rate (13.6%).
Putting the ball in play is Bohm’s speciality and he has been one of the best Phillies hitters against right-handed pitching (149 wRC+, .185 isolated power). Over a third of his hits against righties have gone for doubles.
In a game that I expect to be high scoring, Bohm should have a great shot to do some damage in the middle of the Phillies order. Back him against a fade-worthy Lynn.
Over 7.5 Runs (-225)
Cardinals vs. Phillies | 7:10 p.m. ET, ESPN
This one goes hand in hand with the total bases props. Both pitchers I believe are worth fading and so does our Action Network MLB expert Sean Zerillo. He, too, is on the over tonight.
The wind is blowing out at Citizens Bank Park in perfect weather. Both pitchers have their issues with barrels allowed and fly balls. Tack on the Phillies ranking fifth in wRC+ over the last 14 days and Walker’s alarmingly-high metrics, we should see fireworks on Sunday Night Baseball.
