Cardinals vs Phillies Odds: Sunday Night Baseball Prediction
| St. Louis Cardinals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line (Spread) |
+115 | 9.5 -110o / -110u | +1.5 -164 |
| Philadelphia Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line (Spread) |
-140 | 9.5 -110o / -110u | -1.5 +136 |
The St. Louis Cardinals' hot streak has come to a screeching halt in Philadelphia this weekend at the hands of the Phillies, who are once again back to their winning ways following a series loss in the Bay Area.
After a smattering of three runs over two games, the Cardinals now take aim at the struggling Taijuan Walker in the hopes of salvaging a win at Citizens Bank Park. Opposite Walker is Lance Lynn, who's been surprisingly effective in 2024 around some very unassuming peripheral stats.
Can the Phillies close out the sweep, or will St. Louis finally pick things up offensively?
Let's dive into an in-depth preview of my Cardinals vs Phillies prediction for Sunday Night Baseball.
St. Louis Cardinals
Heading to another hitter-friendly park after taking two of three in Cincinnati, you'd have expected the red-hot Cardinals to continue hitting. Moreover, you'd have expected more out of a team which has put the ball in the air at a high rate over the last two weeks to find more than three runs, especially after Phillies starter Ranger Suarez was knocked out of Saturday's game early with an injury.
As it stands, the Cardinals have just eight hits for the series — and in a bizarre twist five of those have gone for extra bases and of those two have left the yard. In walking just twice, St. Louis is down to a poor 6.9% walk rate over the past 14 days and is hitting just .243. So, what we've seen this weekend seems to check out with their recent run, which has been heavily reliant upon power and hasn't featured a consistent offensive approach.
Speaking of consistency, it's not as if Lynn has been stellar in 2024 but after a couple of rough seasons you have to be very encouraged by the fact that he's yet to allow four earned runs in a start this season and has completed at least four frames in all of his 11 starts, completing five in seven of his last eight.
The grizzled righty has taken a big step forward with an improved 35.3% hard-hit rate which has come along with a bit of a correction in ground-ball rate. He owns a .246 Expected Batting Average which sits almost exactly at the league norm which is the good news here, but the bad news is that he's still searching for control with a 9.2% walk rate and has experienced a drop in strikeouts for a fourth straight season to bring him under the league average at 21.3%.
Philadelphia Phillies
Taijuan Walker has only made six starts, so it's hard to make any brash judgements about him, but his performance so far has certainly left a lot to be desired. After trending up in the ground ball department over the last couple of years, he's watched his rate of contact on the ground plummet to 34.3% this season and that's been one of the bigger causes of his high .287 xBA.
Walker has rolled up balls on the ground at a 40% clip or better in three of his past four starts, but given nearly half of the batted balls he's allowed have come back at 95 mph or higher off the bat and strikeouts have been hard to find, he's had a very tough time getting outs. That, mixed in with another poor showing in the walk department has caused his demise.
Unlike the Cardinals, the Phillies' approach at the plate has been a bit more consistent. They've ranked fifth in wRC+ over the past two weeks, but have actually hit fewer fly balls and have hit .263 over that span with an excellent 19.7% strikeout rate. Philly has still posted a .178 Isolated Power over this time and has to be considered a real threat against the struggling Lynn.
Cardinals vs. Phillies
Betting Pick & Prediction
I've been a noted fan of unders on Sunday Night Baseball through the years, but this doesn't seem to be a great spot to play it.
While the Cardinals have struggled mightily over the course of this series, they've at least been able to produce extra-base hits at a nice clip and should be well-positioned to do damage against Walker here given his disastrous campaign. Even with a few more ground balls in recent starts, the righty is still giving up rockets off the bat and is very vulnerable here against a team that can hit for power even if it's not doing it with consistency.
On the other side, Lynn profiles as the sturdier of the two middling arms, but will have to go to battle against a Phillies team which has reached base with consistency of late and is scorching hot in the power department. In a smaller ballpark where barrels and hard-hit balls will do more damage, I think two starters who have been hurting in that area will struggle.
Pick: Over 9 (-105)
