Cardinals vs Pirates Odds, Pick
| St. Louis Cardinals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+1.5 -140 | 7.5 -120o / +100u | +152 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-1.5 +118 | 7.5 -120o / +100u | -180 |
The Cardinals take on the Pirates on Tuesday, July 23, at 6:40 p.m. ET on MLB.TV.
Paul Skenes has been electric during one of the most anticipated rookie pitching campaigns since Stephen Strasburg. The heavy NL Rookie of the Year favorite (-1000 at DraftKings) has struck out an astounding number of hitters — 89 over 66 1/3 innings — with a plus arsenal and a fastball he can blow by anyone. He has been about average with hard contact, but since he can keep the ball on the ground, he's excelled in nearly every facet of pitching.
Skenes and the Pittsburgh Pirates will take on Lance Lynn and the St. Louis Cardinals on Tuesday night at PNC Park. Lynn has been subpar in the back of the rotation for the Cardinals — his results have been better than his peripheral metrics, so he could see some regression against a red-hot Pirates team.
Since the Bucs have also pitched well in relief, a spread play could make the most sense in this game. Find out more in my Cardinals vs Pirates betting preview below.
St. Louis Cardinals
Lynn has a 4.39 ERA and 4.91 xERA. His Average Exit Velocity is above 89 mph with a below average ground-ball rate and a Hard-Hit Rate in the 34th percentile. His strikeout rate has decreased since a subpar 2023 season to 21.6% with a below average walk rate, as well. It doesn't help that he had one of his worst performances right before the All-Star Break, but this was just the beginning of the long overdue negative regression he could see in his coming starts.
The Cards have a 114 wRC+ with a 6.3% walk rate and 22.1% strikeout rate against righties in the last month. Skenes is not a normal starter, though. In fact, these numbers don't tell the whole story. The Cards only have three batters above a .315 xwOBA with those same parameters in place.
St. Louis’ bullpen has not been strong lately, either. In the last month, it has a 4.19 xFIP with a sub-19% strikeout rate and walk rate above 8%. It also has five arms below a 4.00 xFIP, but outside of Ryan Helsley, no one has been a lockdown arm.
Pittsburgh Pirates
Skenes started the All-Star game for one reason: dominance. The young righty has a killer “splinker”, which has helped propel him to a ground-ball rate in the 82nd percentile. His Average Exit Velocity is below average, and his Hard-Hit Rate is slightly above average, but otherwise, he's been unstoppable with a 1.90 ERA and 2.61 xERA. Additionally, his walk rate is 5.1% against a 34.9% strikeout rate, and he hasn't allowed more than three earned runs in a start this year.
The Pirates have a 102 wRC+ with a 7.6% walk rate and 21.6% strikeout rate in the last month off of right-handers. They have seven bats above a .315 xwOBA with a couple just under that point. Their lineup has shown much more depth to it than their opponents, so look for the Bucs to take advantage of Lynn, who's due for a bad day at the office.
The Pirates have been pretty great in relief, too. They have a 3.48 xFIP with a 26% strikeout rate and 8.7% walk rate. They have five arms under the 4.00 xFIP mark, too, but they have more options who can close out a game than one pitcher, like the Cards.
Cardinals vs. Pirates
Betting Pick & Prediction
Look for Skenes to assert himself on the mound again. The Cardinals don't have a deep lineup, and this righty should manufacture outs quickly.
The Pirates have many more options who can hit against Lynn. The Pirates also have a slight edge in relief, so they have some options to lock the game down, when Skenes exits.
Look for the Pirates to win this one by more than one run. Take them from -1.5 (+120) to -1.5 (-120).
