The Chicago Cubs and Los Angeles Dodgers play the series finale of their three-game series on Wednesday night at Dodger Stadium. First pitch for Cubs-Dodgers on September 11 is scheduled for 10:10 p.m. ET. The game will be broadcast on SportsNet LA and Marquee Sports Network, but before you tune in, let's get to my Cubs vs. Dodgers prediction.
Cubs at Dodgers Predictions
- Cubs at Dodgers pick: Cubs Moneyline (+145 | Play to +138)
My Cubs-Dodgers best bet is on Cubs Moneyline, where I see value at +145. The best line is available at BetMGM, as well as other sportsbooks — make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Cubs vs Dodgers Odds
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+136 | 9 -102o / -120u | +1.5 -150 |
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-162 | 9 -102o / -120u | -1.5 +125 |
Wednesday Probable Starting Pitchers for Cubs-Dodgers
| LHP Jordan Wicks (CHC) | Stat | RHP Bobby Miller (LAD) |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | W-L | 2-4 |
| 0.8 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | -0.7 |
| 4.03 / 4.19 | ERA /xERA | 7.79 / 6.64 |
| 3.23 / 4.10 | FIP / xFIP | 6.80 / 4.46 |
| 1.42 | WHIP | 1.65 |
| 13.1% | K-BB% | 10.4% |
| 41.2% | GB% | 44.2% |
| 93 | Stuff+ | 113 |
| 103 | Location+ | 93 |
For more MLB predictions, check out our Betting Hub for more Wednesday MLB previews.
Kenny Ducey's Cubs at Dodgers Preview for Wednesday
Chicago Cubs Betting Preview: Jordan Wicks Scouting Report
We haven't seen a ton of Wicks this year due to a couple of injuries early on in the season, but as it stands, he's been a rather effective pitcher even if he doesn't do anything particularly exciting on the mound.
Through 38 frames, he's posted an acceptable .257 Expected Batting Average (xBA) but has made his biggest gains with a lower 5.2% barrel rate and .392 Expected Slugging (xSLG) than we saw in his limited action last season. In two starts since returning from his most recent ailment, he's allowed just four runs on nine hits over 10 innings, falling victim to four walks last time out against the New York Yankees in a losing effort.
Still, he's surrendered just two home runs all year, which came in back-to-back starts in April, and he has only yielded one in four of his 16 big-league outings. Wicks has lost some of the ground-ball touch we saw in the minor leagues, but he's remained effective in limiting power, which is something he improved upon across Double-A and Triple-A last season. He's also never had too many issues with walks down on the farm and has only struggled for command in three isolated outings at this level.
Wicks should get some help from his offense here, which ranks 10th in wRC+ over the last two weeks despite heading backwards in the plate discipline categories. The key has been an influx of hits — Chicago sports a .268 average over this span to rank among the best in the league — around a poor .115 Isolated Power (ISO) and bloated 22.9% strikeout rate.
Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Preview: What's up with Bobby Miller?
Bobby Miller's been a big mystery this year. After impressing last season as a rookie, we thought the former first-round pick would have quickly ascended to the top 10 of National League pitchers by September, but he's dealt with injury and a level that was so low that he earned a ticket back to Triple-A in July.
Since returning, Miller owns a .299 xBA and .591 xSLG, something that's even more cause for concern considering he was at .278 and .490, respectively, before his demotion. What's worse is that the results seemed to indicate just a hint of bad luck for Miller through his first seven outings, but the expected numbers have actually come in higher than his results over the last three.
Miller's whiff rate is up to 28.7% in his last three starts, which is the good news, but an influx of strikeouts haven't seemed to matter very much with three walks in each of his last two starts and 14 hits in all 16 innings over his past three.
Miller's also now allowed a home run in every start he's made since his sparkling season debut, and he's surrendered two or more in four of his past five outings. That's partially due to the fact that hitters have squared Miller up with 55.9% of all batted balls traveling 95+ mph since his return, leaving his already poor 43.2% hard-hit rate in the previous months in the dust.
Offensively, the Dodgers do seem to be squaring the ball up much better in their own right. As they've begun to jell in the last two weeks with their lineup completely healthy, their heavy .189 ISO is sitting pretty next to a .276 average. The only sticking point would be an unseasonably low 7.8% walk rate, a number we rarely see that low from one of the most patient lineups in baseball.
Cubs vs Dodgers Prediction, Betting Analysis
The Dodgers sit atop baseball with a .268 xBA and .458 xSLG this season, but in the last two weeks their xBA is down at .255 with results that actually mask some of the slight hiccups they've had in this split.
While many evaluating Wicks may exit his Baseball Savant profile seconds after seeing a collection of gray and blue lines, I think there's a lot to like here. The Cubs were very high on him entering the season, prepared to give him the longest leash of their many starting pitchers, and though he hasn't been dominant, he's given the Cubs a chance to win almost every time he's taken the ball.
The Dodgers' recent downturn in the walks department and their sudden decline against left-handed pitching should help Wicks navigate what's a menacing lineup on paper, and should he just limit the damage to a few runs at the worst, I think a surging Chicago offense should continue making life difficult on Miller.
The young prospect is, in a word, lost. He developed the ability to pitch to contact quite quickly last year as his strikeouts fluctuated — something that's normal for a rookie — but he's forgotten just as quickly as he learned. As he continues to limit his fastball usage, he'll encounter a Cubs team that's improved against changeups since the start of August and owns a .260 xBA against curveballs since that date, which ranks fourth in the league. Against Miller's three primary pitches, combined, the Cubs rank third in xBA since the start of last month.
This should be a friendly spot for an improving Cubs offense playing inspired baseball, now just four games back of the final wild-card spot in the NL. Their bullpen has been drastically better in the last month of play, and L.A.'s will be taxed after Evan Phillips handed Chicago the game last night.
Back the Cubs for the sweep.
Pick: Cubs Moneyline +145
Moneyline
The Dodgers opened up just shy of -158 on the moneyline and have since been bet all the way down to -175, settling back at -170 early on Wednesday. With that said, we've tracked sharp action hitting the Cubs.
Run Line (Spread)
The Cub have gone 50-27 to the run line as underdogs this year, covering in 64.9% of games to rank eighth in baseball. They've covered in three straight, while L.A. has gone 2-4 to the run line over the last six. The Dodgers are just 35-36 against the spread as home favorites, though that number ranks fourth in the league.
Over/Under
The total remains stagnant at the opening number of nine runs, though we did near a move to 9.5 runs early Wednesday morning before money came back in on the under. There's been sharp action on the under, despite the fact that it's failed to cash in the first two games of this series.
Cubs-Dodgers Betting Trends
- 86% of the bets and 80% of the money are on the Dodgers moneyline.
- 91% of the bets and 92% of the money are on the over.
- 13% of the bets and 11% of the money are on the Cubs to cover the run line.
Cubs Betting Trends
- Cubs are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
- Cubs are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
- Cubs are 41-33 in their road games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Cubs' last 5 games
- The totals have gone OVER in 31 of Cubs' 71 last games at home
Dodgers Betting Trends
- Dodgers are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
- Dodgers are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
- Dodgers are 33-37 in their road games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Dodgers' last 5 games
- The totals have gone OVER in 41 of Dodgers' 73 last games at home
Cubs-Dodgers Weather Forecast for Wednesday
