The St. Louis Cardinals host the Chicago Cubs on July 28, 2026. First pitch from Busch Stadium is scheduled for 7:45 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on CARD.
The Cubs are -112 on the moneyline and -1.5 on the run line. The Cardinals are -108 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 9 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Cubs vs Cardinals prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Cubs vs Cardinals Prediction
- Cubs vs Cardinals Pick: Under 9 (-120), 1u | Bet to 8.5
My Cubs vs Cardinals best bet is on the under total runs. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Cubs vs Cardinals Odds
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +149 | 9 100o / -120u | -112 |
| Cardinals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -181 | 9 100o / -120u | -108 |
- Cubs vs Cardinals moneyline: Cubs -112, Cardinals -108
- Cubs vs Cardinals over/under: 9 (+100o / -120u)
- Cubs vs Cardinals spread: Cubs -1.5 (+149), Cardinals +1.5 (-181)
Cubs vs Cardinals Probable Pitchers
| RHP Colin Rea (CHC) | Stat | TBD (STL) |
|---|---|---|
| 7-7 | W-L | — |
| 0.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | — |
| 4.85/5.57 | ERA / xERA | — |
| 4.95/4.67 | FIP / xFIP | — |
| 9.3% | K-BB% | — |
| 44.0% | GB% | — |
| .298 | BABIP | — |
| 94 | Stuff+ | — |
| 99 | Location+ | — |
Cubs vs Cardinals MLB Betting Preview
Chicago Cubs Betting Preview
Colin Rea makes his 18th and possibly last start for the Cubs this year, as the pitching staff (both rotation and pen) is probably the part of their team the Cubs will focus on for next week’s trade deadline.
A useful swing-man type for Milwaukee and Chicago the last few years, the 36-year-old reached nearly the end of that usefulness with a 5.40 ERA matching a 5.44 FIP over his last 15 starts (plus one bulk relief outing), recording a 4.96 xFIP and 6.22 xERA over that span as well.
Rea has just a 7.7 K-BB% during this stretch, which is bad enough before getting to the 31 barrels (11.7%) that he’s allowed too.
The one…I don’t even know if I would call it a positive sign, but his 4.39 Bot ERA and 94 Pitching+ align well with career rates of 4.42 and 96, but even those drop over the 16-game period mentioned above to 4.50 and 93.
The fastball (42.1%, 50 PB, 95 P+) is simply getting smashed at a career worst rate (155 wRC+) with batters from either side of the plate between a .337 and .359 wOBA and xwOBA against Rea this year.
He may be able to save his spot on the staff in a nice spot here with the projected St. Louis lineup averaging just an 89 wRC+ at home, 98 wRC+ (.142 ISO) vs RHP and 79 wRC+ over the last 30 days.
Aside from a few injuries, the Cardinals have pretty much set and forgotten their lineup against RHP this year and while the top five have a wRC+ of 105 or better against pitchers from that side this year, none of the usual bottom four top 70.
Additionally, Jordan Walker (134 wRC+ L30 days) and Alec Burleson (113) are the only two batters reaching league average in all three of the categories mentioned above. In fact, five of nine projected Cardinals are below a 70 wRC+ over the last month also.
Rea is one of just 28 pitchers with at least one stolen base attempt against to have accumulated four or more Net Bases Prevented via Statcast with runners only attempting on 0.8% of 620 opportunities against him.
This will be a battle of two strong defenses, but the Cubs are best in the league at 39 Runs Prevented and 48 OAA on a team level. Both marks lead the majors by double digits.
The projected lineup sits at 51 FRV (Fielding Run Value) with PCA responsible for a startling 21 of those (leads majors by five), but only Carson Kelly (-1) in the negative realm.
Kelly is also near the bottom of the board with -3 CS Above Average, gunning down just 16% of base stealers (6) with an expectation of 24% (9) via Statcast. Miguel Amaya has been much better at 1 CSAA, catching 30% (6) with an expectation of just 25% (5).
The Cardinals are tied for 18th in the league with 63 stolen bases (through Sunday) with Walker (14) and JJ Wetherhold (10) the only players in double digits.
The Chicago bullpen has a 4.38 FIP, 4.12 xFIP and 3.71 SIERA over the last 30 days, good for the 13th best mark in the league over that span, but that’s actually an improvement for what’s been a sore spot for this team all season without their closer (Danny Palencia) for most of it, ranking as BARTOLO’s 25th relief unit (4.36 wFIP).
St. Louis Cardinals Betting Preview
The Cardinals have yet to confirm their pitching plans for Tuesday night. If it’s anything like Monday, we won’t find out until they release their lineup.
While MLB.com has it TBD, Rotowire is listing Michael McGreevy with the expectation that Hunter Dobbins will piggyback David Peterson on Monday. The game started late after a rain delay and is still in the early innings at the time of this writing. If Dobbins doesn’t pitch on Monday night, things may become confusing.
As I wrote for Thursday’s Leadoff before McGreevy’s last start:
Michael McGreevy has a 2.92 ERA with the fourth lowest four-seam fastball velocity (91.7 mph) and the second lowest strikeout rate (16.6%) among qualified starters. His 11 K-BB% is tied for 9th worst.
With so much contact and 9.6% Barrels/BBE, McGreevy sports a 5.35 xERA. Considering he pitches in one of the most power suppressing environments in the league, it’s a bit surprising that six of his 14 home runs have been surrendered at home, where he still has a 3.96 FIP more than a run above his ERA.
He faced 27 Diamondbacks in that game, allowing seven hits, walking three, striking out three and allowing four runs with a home run in 6.1 innings.
McGreevy had a 2.1 SwStr% and allowed four barrels in that start. His xERA is up to 5.47 on the season.
While Statcast's xwOBA retains his 30 point standard split it increases LHBs’ .311 wOBA against McGreevy to .369 and RHBs’ .281 wOBA to .332.
The Cardinals have a great defense (16 RP, 22 OAA, projected defense 24 FRV), but allow a .294 BABIP as a team, so they’re not the reason for McGreevy’s .257 BABIP. That and his 82.3 LOB% are due for regression at some point.
That defense is led by Wetherholt’s 16 FRV (second in the league behind PCA) with Masyn Winn at 10 for one hell of a middle infield unit.
Jordan Walker (-5) and Ivan Herrera (-4) are the weak spots when the Cardinals take the field.
St. Louis has been shuffling between Herrera and Jimmy Crooks behind the plate against RHP recently.
The former has not caught a single one of the 25 stolen base attempts against him. A -5 CSAA is second worst among catchers who have faced at least five attempts. Crooks hasn’t caught anyone either, but is at just -1 CSAA with an expectation of one caught stealing (15%).
McGreevy, however, has been one of the few pitchers in the league better than Rea at holding runners with 5 Net Bases Prevented, a plateau only 11 pitchers in the league have reached. Runners have taken off on only 0.5% of 623 chances against him.
It’ll be interesting if McGreevy’s proficiency for holding runners will win out here with the Cubs middle of the league in stolen bases with 73 through Sunday. Almost all of those come from PCA (26), Dansby Swanson (14) and Nico Hoerner (14). Nobody else on the team has more than four.
The St. Louis bullpen had really been struggling not too long ago, but have pulled their last 30 day estimators within two spots of the Cubs with a 3.79 FIP, 4.49 xFIP and 4.19 SIERA, dropping the group’s ERA below four during that stretch, though a lot of that is home run suppression (0.65 HR/9) with just a 10.8 K-BB%.
BARTOLO ranks this unit one spot behind the Cubs at 26th on the year with a 4.39 wFIP.
Cubs vs Cardinals Pick, Betting Analysis
The latest Statcast park factors have Busch Stadium suppressing runs by 6%, tied with several other parks for the third lowest run environment in the league. Preliminary weather reports don’t seem to be likely to impact the game much, nor should scheduled umpire Adam Hamari (-0.6).
I have McGreevy projected around four and a half with Rea about one-third of a run worse, but the Chicago offense around 20 points of wRC+ ahead of the St. Louis on at this point in time.
The Cubs are also the better of two great defense. The Cardinals are a top five defense, but the Cubs more than double them up in Runs Prevented, OAA and projected lineup FRV.
Bullpens are very comparable either in the middle of the league (if using L30 day estimators) or at the bottom of it (via BARTOLO).
I’ve stalled just long enough that a line has just been posted on Bet365 with the Cubs at -115 and a total of 9 with the vig shaded to towards the under (-120).
Ironically, I have the Cubs just above -115 with an F5 projection around -110 (no F5 line yet).
Dobbins has indeed entered Monday night’s game, so it should be McGreevy, but despite the lack of starting pitching quality, I don’t think this game has the juice to reach nine with:
- A struggling St. Louis offense.
- Two great defenses
- One of the more negative run environments in the game without any weather or umpiring conflict.
I would play this through 8.5, but lower to 0.5u below 9.
Pick: Under 9 (-120), 1u | Bet to 8.5
