The New York Mets host the Cincinnati Reds on July 19, 2025. First pitch from Citi Field is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on FDSOH.
Find my MLB betting preview and Reds vs Mets prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports, and more.
My Cincinnati Reds vs New York Mets Prediction
- Reds vs Mets picks: Over 8.5 (-120 | Play to 9, BetMGM)
My Reds vs Mets best bet is the Over 8.5. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Cincinnati Reds vs New York Mets Odds, Spread, Best Bet
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -143 | 8.5 -108o / -112u | +143 |
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +118 | 8.5 -108o / -112u | -176 |
- Reds vs Mets Moneyline: Reds +143, Mets -176
- Reds vs Mets Total: 8.5 (-108o / -112u)
- Reds vs Mets Spread: Reds +1.5 (-143), Mets -1.5 (+118)
- Reds vs Mets Best Bet: Over 8.5
Cincinnati Reds vs New York Mets Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Nick Martinez (CIN) | Stat | RHP Clay Holmes (NYM) |
|---|---|---|
| 7-9 | W-L | 8-4 |
| 1.6 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.0 |
| 4.78 / 4.08 | ERA / xERA | 3.31 / 4.20 |
| 4.14 /4.48 | FIP / xFIP | 4.23 / 4.05 |
| 1.21 | WHIP | 1.26 |
| 11.2 | K-BB% | 9.7 |
| 37.4 | GB% | 55.2 |
| 92 | Stuff+ | 104 |
| 108 | Location+ | 99 |
Doug Ziefel’s Cincinnati Reds vs New York Mets Preview
Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview: Risky Matchup for Holmes
In the series opener last night, the Cincinnati Reds pounced once Mets starter Sean Manaea left following the fourth inning as they put up seven of their eight runs against the Mets' bullpen. Although the damage came against just two of the weaker arms in the Mets' bullpen, it's likely they'll have to contend with backend arms after Clay Holmes today.
Holmes has had a solid campaign in the Mets' starting rotation. He enters this game with a 3.31 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP. The key to his success will be to keep the ball on the ground, which he does at an elite rate, with his groundball rate in the 93rd percentile.
However, the Reds have hit for significantly more power against righties on the season and are in the middle of the pack in terms of ground ball rate. Given the amount of hard contact Holmes surrenders, any ball in the air could prove detrimental to his outing.
New York Mets Betting Preview: Bullpen Won't Hold the Mets Down
It's a similar story for the Mets in this matchup, as their bats are in a great spot to break out with warm weather and strong winds blowing out. We saw them get off to a hot start yesterday as Juan Soto homered and Jeff McNeil tacked on before the bullpen imploded in the middle innings.
Then, their ninth inning rally was too little, and too late to overcome the deficit. This afternoon, they get to face Nick Martinez, who has been servicable for the Reds this season.
Martinez has done a good job of limiting hard contact, but the concern against the Mets stems from his flyball rate, which is the highest it has been in his career. The longball has been more of an issue as he's already allowed more home runs this year than he has each of the last two seasons.
Then, behind Martinez, is where the Mets should really be able to attack the plate. Cincinnati's bullpen is 26th in SIERA and 22nd in flyball rate.
We've already seen New York rally against the better arms in the Reds' bullpen, and if they can get Martinez out after five, they'll have an even more favorable matchup.
Cincinnati Reds vs New York Mets Prediction, Betting Analysis
While it won't be nearly as hot, we saw just how much of a hitter's ballpark Citi Field can become when the wind is blowing out in the Subway Series.
The wind conditions are going to be similar this afternoon, and with a sold-out crowd due to David Wright's number retirement celebration before the game, we should see the Mets swing with authority against a subpar Cincinnati pitching staff.
Although I expect the Reds to participate on the scoreboard, Holmes is in just as precarious a spot as Martinez, given the conditions. His only saving grace is the groundball, but if his command is not there, we've already seen what the Reds can do.
Take the over.
Pick: Over 8.5 (-120, BetMGM)
Moneyline
There are better ways to back the Mets than on the moneyline.
Run Line (Spread)
New York has received market support, and the run line is a good way to back them given the hitting conditions.
Over/Under
Take the over in this afternoon's Reds vs. Mets matchup.
Reds vs Mets Betting Trends
Cincinnati Reds Betting Trends
- Reds are 4-1 in their last five games
- Reds are 24-24 in their road games against the spread
New York Mets Betting Trends
- The totals have gone OVER in two of the Mets' last five games
- The totals have gone OVER in 23 of the Mets' 48 last games at home
