After stealing home-field advantage, the Detroit Tigers are set to host the Cleveland Guardians for Game 3 of the ALDS on Wednesday afternoon at Comerica Park. First pitch is scheduled for 3:08 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on TBS, truTV and Max, with additional options that include MLB.TV and YouTube TV.
For Game 3, the Guardians are starting right-hander Alex Cobb, who's been limited this year due to a number of injuries. As for the Tigers, well … it looks like "pitching chaos" is on tap with Keider Montero getting the start/opening role.
Guardians vs Tigers Game 3 odds (via BetMGM) have the moneyline as a pick'em with both teams listed at -110. The over/under has ticked up from 7 to 7.5 runs (+100o / -120u). The Guardians are +155 to cover their run line (-1.5) and the Tigers are -190 (+1.5).
I try to parse out this crucial AL Central clash and offer my Guardians vs Tigers predictions, picks and Game 3 best bet for Wednesday, October 9.
My Guardians vs Tigers Predictions for Game 3
- Guardians vs Tigers pick: Tigers Moneyline (-104 | Play to -125)
My Guardians vs Tigers best bet is on the Tigers moneyline, where I see value at -104. The best line is available at FanDuel, but make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers Odds, Predictions, Best Bet
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-110 | 7.5 +100o / -120u | -1.5 +155 |
| Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-110 | 7.5 +100o / -120u | +1.5 -190 |
- Guardians vs Tigers Moneyline: Guardians -110, Tigers -110
- Guardians vs Tigers Total: Over/Under 7.5 runs (+100o / -120u)
- Guardians vs Tigers Run Line: Guardians -1.5 (+155), Tigers +1.5 (-190)
Game 3 Probable Pitchers for Guardians vs Tigers
| RHP Alex Cobb (CLE) | Stat | RHP Keider Montero (DET) |
|---|---|---|
| 2-1 (3 starts; 16 1/3 innings) | W-L | 6-6 |
| 0.3 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | -0.1 |
| 2.76 / 4.87 | ERA /xERA | 4.76 / 5.10 |
| 3.29 / 3.70 | FIP / xFIP | 5.15 / 4.33 |
| 1.04 | WHIP | 1.33 |
| 11.3% | K-BB% | 11.2% |
| 61.2% | GB% | 39.2% |
| 107 | Stuff+ | 96 |
| 105 | Location+ | 100 |
Guardians vs Tigers Game 3 Lineups, Previews, Predictions
There's a lot pitching uncertainty for Guardians vs Tigers Game 3 as Cleveland turns to Alex Cobb and Detroit to Keider Montero. One hasn't pitched all that often due to injuries; the other has been largely ineffective.
Guardians Betting Preview
Guardians Game 3 Lineup
- Steven Kwan (LF)
- Kyle Manzardo (DH)
- Jose Ramirez (3B)
- Josh Naylor (1B)
- Lane Thomas (CF)
- Andres Gimenez (2B)
- Will Brennan (RF)
- Bo Naylor (C)
- Brayan Rocchio (SS)
Alex Cobb has a 2.75 ERA and 4.87 xERA in three starts this season. The veteran right-hander has been hampered by injuries, undergoing left hip surgery, fracturing a nail on his right hand and then dealing with a blister.
Cobb has an Average Exit Velocity over 91 mph and a subpar Hard-Hit Rate, though he manages to keep the ball on the ground over 61% of the time.
He rarely walks hitters, but his strikeout rate of 16.1% is abysmal. The Tigers had one of the lowest ground-ball rates in baseball this year, so they should negate what is typically an edge for Cobb.
The Guardians are probably going to face a slew of pitchers on Wednesday. They had a 100 wRC+ against both righties and lefties in September, with an 8.7% walk rate and 22.8% strikeout rate. They have five bats on the playoff roster who held a .320+ xwOBA, so the bottom of the lineup usually does not do as much damage.
In relief, the Guardians had a 3.50 xFIP, 6.3% walk rate and strikeout rate above 28%.
The story entering Game 3 is that Emmanuel Clase only yielded five earned during the regular season but gave up three in one swing to Kerry Carpenter.
Tigers Betting Preview
Tigers Game 3 Lineup
- Parker Meadows (CF)
- Kerry Carpenter (DH)
- Matt Vierling (3B)
- Riley Greene (LF)
- Wenceel Perez (RF)
- Colt Keith (2B)
- Spencer Torkelson (1B)
- Trey Sweeney (SS)
- Jake Rogers (C)
The Tigers made the announcement on Wednesday that right-hander Keider Montero would get the start. That being said, it wouldn't be a surprise to see him get pulled after a couple of innings at the most.
With that in mind, I'll broadly touch on the Detroit's pitching staff as a whole.
First, let's start with Montero, who last pitched on Saturday when he threw two innings shutout innings in Game 1. To say he doesn't have impressive stats would be an understatement.
In the regular season, he posted a 4.76 ERA against an even higher 5.10 xERA. His entire page on Baseball Savant is blue, which isn't what you want. Notably, he allowed an Average Exit velocity near 89 mph with a fourth-percentile Expected Batting Average of .285. He doesn't generate many whiffs or chases either.
The Tigers had a September xFIP of 3.72 in relief; they had a 6.1% walk rate and a strikeout rate of 21.9%. Tyler Holton has been used as an opener quite frequently and he could see some action in this one.
The lefty has a 2.19 ERA and 2.75 xERA. His Average Exit Velocity is under 87 mph and he has an excellent Hard-Hit Rate, ground-ball rate, barrel rate and walk rate.
Assuming Holton opens, Detroit could go any number of ways. Manager A.J. Hinch could go to Jackson Jobe, though he might not want to after Jobe's awful appearance in the Wild Card Series. The rest of this bullpen, however, has been nearly lockdown. They may not produce many strikeouts, but they limit free passes.
At the dish, the Tigers had a 107 wRC+, 9.8% walk rate and 24.8% strikeout rate against righties in September. They have several bats on the playoff roster who have an xwOBA above .320.
Guardians vs Tigers Prediction, Game 3 Betting Analysis
Given that the Tigers have been better at the plate, they should have an edge both at home and against a starter in Cobb who is due for a little negative regression.
Cobb is decent and can keep the ball on the ground, but the Tigers could have the antidote for that with a fly-ball heavy approach.
I'm betting the Tigers in Game 3 from -104 to -125.
Pick: Tigers Moneyline -104 to -125
Moneyline
As I mentioned above, I'm on the Tigers moneyline.
Pick: Tigers ML
Run Line (Spread)
I have no play for either side of the run line.
Pick: Pass
Over/Under
Like the run line, I'm staying away from the total.
Pick: Pass
Guardians Betting Trends
- Guardians are 41-40 in their road games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 0 of Guardians' last 5 games
- Guardians relief pitchers have allowed an OPS of just .490 (88 PA's) against right-handed batters this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .650.
Tigers Betting Trends
- The totals have gone OVER in 36 of Tigers' 81 last games at home
- The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Tigers' last 5 games
- Tigers hitters have come to the plate with runners in scoring position in just 61 of their 321 plate appearances (19%) this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Guardians vs Tigers Game 3 Viewing Info: Channel, Start Time, Streaming
| Location: | Comerica Park in Detroit, Mich. |
| Date: | Wednesday, Oct. 9, 2024 |
| Time: | 3:08 p.m. ET |
| TV Channel/Live Streaming: | TBS, truTV, Max, MLB.TV, YouTube TV |
