The Kansas City Royals (50-53) and Cleveland Guardians (51-51) will meet in the MLB this afternoon. First pitch for Game 1 of the doubleheader at Kauffman Stadium is scheduled for 2:40 p.m. ET. The game will broadcast live on Apple TV+.
The Royals are slight -115 moneyline favorites, with the Guardians listed at -105. Cleveland is favored on the run line (-1.5), and the total sits at 8.5 runs.
Continue below for a Guardians vs Royals predictions and MLB picks for Saturday, July 26, plus probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Guardians vs Royals Prediction
- Guardians vs Royals pick: Under 8.5 (-115)
My Royals vs. Guardians best bet is on the under, with the best line currently available at DraftKings. But as always, make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Guardians vs Royals Odds
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +155 | 8.5 -105o / -115u | -105 |
| Royals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -190 | 8.5 -105o / -115u | -115 |
Guardians vs Royals Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Gavin Williams (CLE) | Stat | RHP Michael Wacha (KCR) |
|---|---|---|
| 6-4 | W-L | 4-9 |
| 0.7 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.0 |
| 3.54/4.38 | ERA /xERA | 3.62/4.01 |
| 4.53/4.26 | FIP / xFIP | 3.84/4.44 |
| 1.38 | WHIP | 1.24 |
| 10.7% | K-BB% | 10.9% |
| 41.8% | GB% | 39.1% |
| 101 | Stuff+ | 99 |
| 92 | Location+ | 102 |
Guardians vs Royals Preview, Picks
We’re backing the Under 8.5 as the best bet in Game 1, supported by the “Daytime Unders with Efficient Arms” system developed by Evan Abrams.
This model specifically targets early afternoon games—those played between 11:00 a.m. and 2:59 p.m. ET — where scoring tends to slow due to the combined effects of sun, shadows, and shorter rest.
Add in the starting pitching matchup and we get a sharp angle on the under.
Cleveland sends Gavin Williams to the mound, an efficient young right-hander who fits squarely within the Abrams system filters: an ERA between 3.00 and 4.76, and a WHIP in the 1.07–1.39 range.
On the other side, Kansas City’s Michael Wacha brings veteran steadiness to a lineup that has posted a modest hit rate (between 7.81 and 8.24 per game), another key filter in the model.
This range signals a home team offense that is competent—but not explosive—creating a scoring environment with limited volatility.
The Guardians have been trending up, winning 11 of their past 14 entering Friday and clawing back to .500. Kansas City, meanwhile, returns home from a 3–3 road trip and owns a solid 11–7 mark in July.
With both teams hovering around the AL Wild Card picture and approaching next week’s trade deadline, Game 1 figures to be tightly contested and strategically managed — another “under-friendly” dynamic.
Cleveland has already played four doubleheaders this season and split each one.
Kansas City has one sweep and one split in twin bills. The early-afternoon timing, solid but not overpowering pitching, and league-average offensive metrics all point to a slow-paced, low-scoring opener.
Pick: Under 8.5 (-115)
Guardians vs Royals Betting Trends
