Arguably the series of the year in the AL Central is taking place this week with the Cleveland Guardians and Kansas City Royals battling it out for the division lead.
The Guardians entered the week ahead of the Royals by three games, but losing twice on Monday puts them in a must-win spot to protect their once-lengthy AL Central lead.
Here's my Guardians vs. Royals predictions and my MLB picks on Tuesday.
Guardians vs Royals Prediction
- Guardians vs Royals pick: Guardians moneyline
My Guardians-Royals best bet for Tuesday is on Cleveland to win outright. The best line is available at BetRivers, according to our live MLB odds page.
Guardians vs Royals Odds
| Royals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -177 | 9 -107o / -114u | +125 |
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +145 | 9 -107o / -114u | -148 |
- Guardians vs Royals run line: Guardians -1.5 (+145) | Royals +1.5 (-177)
- Guardians vs Royals total: Over/under 9 runs
- Guardians vs Royals moneylines: Guardians -148 | Royals +125
Guardians vs Royals Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Gavin Williams | Stat | RHP Michael Lorenzen |
|---|---|---|
| 2-6 | W-L | 7-6 |
| 0.8 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.7 |
| 5.13/4.52 | ERA /xERA | 3.47/4.68 |
| 3.74/4.00 | FIP / xFIP | 5.00/4.99 |
| 1.46 | WHIP | 1.25 |
| 2.7 | K-BB% | 1.8 |
| 38.4 | GB% | 41.3 |
| 99 | Stuff+ | 94 |
| 102 | Location+ | 97 |
Sean Paul’s Guardians vs Royals Preview
Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview: Williams Primed For Positive Regression
Guardians starter Gavin Williams is the most "eye test doesn't match results" pitcher in MLB.
Williams's last outing in the Bronx against the Yankees encapsulates a frustrating sophomore season, allowing three runs with four walks in 4 1/3 innings. The 6-foot-6 physically imposing righty out-dueled CY Young and Gerrit Cole for three innings before walking four guys and eventually getting pulled in the fifth inning.
That's the story for Williams. Just one bad inning changed a promising outing into yet another disappointing one.
He enters this start with a 5.13 ERA and 3.74 FIP, so he's certainly due for some positive regression. Williams punches out 9.89 batters per nine but walks 3.61 per nine. He just needs his electric 97-100 mph fastball to land in the zone more often.
The dwindling division lead can be largely attributed to severe offensive regression, as Cleveland ranks 24th in MLB with a 91 wRC+ in August. While Steven Kwan's batting .375 wasn't sustainable, he's hitting below .200 over a three-week-long sample in August and not setting the table for the rest of the lineup.
There isn't much offensive output beyond the always-consistent Jose Ramirez (138 wRC+ in August) and one other unsung hero, Jhonkensy "Big Christmas" Noel (193 wRC+.) Noel has provided some desperately needed right-handed pop to a very left-handed heavy lineup, connecting on six homers in August.
Despite recent struggles, Cleveland has maintained a strong 8.8% walk rate and a well above-average 19% strikeout rate. That's an excellent foundation to build on.
What is the silver lining for losing both ends of the doubleheader? Steven Vogt's bullpen is in a tremendous spot for Tuesday's game. Emmanuel Clase, Cade Smith, and Hunter Gaddis pitched one of the two games, so all three should be ready for Tuesday.
I don't quite understand using Clase in the ninth inning of a 9-4 ballgame in game two. They already have overused Clase, so why add a pointless inning into the equation? But Steven Vogt is the likely AL Manager of the year, and I am not. Maybe he knows something I don't. Otherwise, that choice seems poor.
Kansas City Royals Betting Preview: Lorenzen's Overperforming
The Royals were +850 to win the AL Central in Spring Training, and now Kansas City could be tied for the AL Central lead with a month to play with a win on Tuesday.
Kansas City looked to add another veteran arm to fill out its rotation at the deadline and brought in Michael Lorenzen from the Rangers.
The 32-year-old veteran has enjoyed a strong start to his time in KC, posting a 1.99 ERA in four 22 2/3 innings spanning over four starts. He's dropped his batting average from .225 with the Rangers to .205 with the Royals. However, walks issues remain prevalent, as he issued nine free passes through those 22 2/3 innings.
Although Lorenzen is pitching better, his peripherals still suggest regression, posting a 5.00 FIP in contrast to his 3.47 ERA. He walks 4.13 batters per nine and strikeouts out only 6.48 guys per nine while allowing 1.23 homers per nine. It's not hard to see why Lorenzen's FIP is so high since he walks guys, allows bombs, and doesn't strike anybody out. Those stats can make or break a pitcher's FIP, and for Lorenzen, it's breaking.
Most teams hit better in their comfortable home environments, but Kansas City might have the most extreme splits, posting a 93 wRC+ in road games this year compared to 107 at Kaufmann Stadium. According to Baseball Savant's park factors, Kaufmann Stadium is a haven for hitters across the sport, as it grades out as one of the top hitter's parks.
I'm out of superlatives to describe the brilliance of Bobby Witt Jr, who's posting one of the best seasons by a shortstop ever. He'd be a shoo-in MVP winner if it weren't for Aaron Judge putting up numbers we haven't seen since Barry Bonds dominated baseball. Witt Jr owns a 173 wRC+ with 26 homers, 26 stolen bases, and gold glove caliber defense.
The Royals' offense ranked fourth in MLB with a 118 wRC+ in August, and eight players on the roster have a wRC+ above 110. The lineup is deeper than just Witt Jr., although they don't have any other star-caliber hitters.
So, what's the key here for the Royals? Their trio of lefty bats in Vinnie Pasquantino, Michael Massey, and MJ Melendez. All three have been sensational at a vital time for the Royals' playoff chances and should see pitches to hit if the Guardians choose to be careful with Witt Jr.
So, what's the proper bet here?
Guardians vs Royals Prediction, Betting Analysis
I still believe in Williams and see him as the primary reason the Guardians win on Tuesday.
He's a better pitcher to back in this spot, and the Guardians' lineup is much better at home, whereas the Royals' offense is worse on the road.
That bodes well for Cleveland to win at -142 on the moneyline.
Guardians vs Royals Pick: Guardians ML (-142 play to -160)
Moneyline
I love the Guardians on Tuesday.
Run Line (Spread)
No play here for me. The Guardians are addicted to playing tight games, so I don't have much faith in them winning by two runs, nor do I feel confident enough to take the Royals +1.5.
Over/Under
Over bettors have benefitted from Royals games lately, as they've gone over the total in four of five games. The Guardians have also been profitable on the over, hitting the over in three of their past five. I'll roll with over 8.5 runs here at -120. We've seen both pitchers implode at times, and both offenses look phenomenal at various points in the seasons.
Guardians vs Royals Betting Trends
- 76% of bets and 96% of the money are on the Guardians to win outright.
- 96% of bets and 96% of the money are on the over.
GUARDIANS BETTING TRENDS:
- Guardians are 2-3 in their last 5 games
- Guardians are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
- Guardians are 33-36 in their road games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Guardians' last 5 games
- The totals have gone OVER in 35 of Guardians' 63 last games at home
ROYALS BETTING TRENDS:
- Royals are 3-2 in their last 5 games
- Royals are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
- Royals are 34-29 in their road games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 4 of Royals' last 5 games
- The totals have gone OVER in 36 of Royals' 69 last games at home
Guardians vs Royals Weather
