Last week, the Kansas City Royals (75-63) knotted the Cleveland Guardians (78-59) for first place in the AL Central.
The Royals, however, have since lost five consecutive games and enter Monday 3 1/2 games behind the Guardians for first place. Kansas City owns possession of the third AL wild-card spot with a 4 1/2-game lead over the Boston Red Sox.
The Guardians and Royals get it on again on Monday afternoon at Kauffman Stadium. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET; the game can be seen on Bally Sports Great Lakes/Kansas City. So, let's get to my Guardians vs Royals prediction.
Guardians vs Royals Prediction
- Guardians-Royals pick: Royals Moneyline (-115) | Play to -140)
My Guardians vs Royals best bet is on the Royals moneyline, where I see value at -115. The best line is available at FanDuel, as well as other sportsbooks — make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Guardians vs Royals Odds
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +162 | 8.5 -100o / -122u | +100 |
| Royals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -196 | 8.5 -100o / -122u | -118 |
Guardians vs Royals Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Gavin Williams (CLE) | Stat | RHP Michael Wacha (KC) |
|---|---|---|
| 2-7 | W-L | 11-6 |
| 0.8 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.6 |
| 4.99/4.32 | ERA /xERA | 3.50/4.32 |
| 3.82/3.96 | FIP / xFIP | 3.78/4.12 |
| 1.41 | WHIP | 1.21 |
| 2.8% | K-BB% | 3.2% |
| 39.3% | GB% | 39.8% |
| 100 | Stuff+ | 91 |
| 102 | Location+ | 101 |
Sean Paul’s Guardians vs Royals Preview
Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview: Where Has Cleveland's Hitting Gone?
Just five days ago, Gavin Williams twirled five innings of two runs ball while adding six punch outs in a 6-1 loss to the Royals. That's a solid outing for Williams, who enters with a 4.99 ERA and 3.82 FIP despite displaying dominant stuff that looks akin to a top of the rotation starter.
You could make a compelling argument that the Guardians biggest series of the year was against the Pirates last weekend, where they won two of three games. Fresh off an ugly series against the Royals, Cleveland needed something positive to happen and a chance to secure a multi-game lead in the division again.
Did the Guardians fix their long-lasting offensive woes against Pittsburgh?
I'll say this — I'm pretty skeptical. It could be more of facing a bad Pirates team than anything of substance. That said, Cleveland's offense appeared more potent in the two wins of the Pirates series, largely thanks to the long ball, pumping five homers in the two games.
Still, dating back exactly a week from yesterday, Cleveland ranks 22nd with a 92 wRC+ with a 7.8% BB rate and 19% strikeout rate.
Only four Cleveland players own a wRC+ above 100 during that span, led by Jhonkensy Noel and David Fry, whom occupy a wRC+ above 140. You notice the missing names there? No Jose Ramirez, who sits at a 100 wRC+ on the dot and no Steven Kwan, whose struggles have exacerbated to hitting just .153 over his past 15 games with a dreadful .461 OPS.
I firmly believe this Guardians offense isn't salvageable without Kwan being a half-decent hitter instead of his recent performances as one of the league's worst hitters in a premium spot in Cleveland's lineup. If the straw that stirs the drink isn't stirring the drink, then it's a pretty poor-tasting drink. That's the current state of the Guardians' offense.
Perhaps the introduction of prized prospect Kyle Manzardo back into the Guardians lineup is the serum to fixing the lineup issues. Manzardo struggled during his first run in the bigs, but hit a pair of homers on Sunday in a must-win game.
Kansas City Royals Betting Preview: Nothing Like Home Cookin'
The only game Kansas City lost in Cleveland last week came with Michael Wacha on the hill. The veteran righty struggled mightily, allowing seven hits and five earned runs through five innings. Wacha enters with a 3.50 ERA and 3.78 FIP with a 39.8% GB% and 7.7 K/9. He'll look to generate most of his outs via the fly ball, and hope to limit the Guardians's home-run reliant tendencies.
The Royals regularly reliable offense went doormat during their four-game sweep in Houston, scoring just nine runs and no more than three in any games.
The common theme? Houston kept Bobby Witt Jr. mostly in check, hitting 2-for-16 with a pair of homers as his only hits. Yes, homers are very valuable, but it's important to keep Witt's ligniting quick speed off the base paths. I'm sure nobody in Kansas City will complain about Witt hitting two homers, but both were solo homers with little impact on the game. That's probably the best way to contain Witt.
The Kansas City lineup is different from the prior matchup against Cleveland. Not only is Vinnie Pasquantino hurt, but it brought in a pair of vets, Tommy Pham from waivers and former World Champion Yuli Gurriel via a minor league deal from the Braves. While neither are game-breaking players in 2024, both have played in the World Series, leading to important experience for a younger team.
In more positive news for Kansas City, it returns home from a long road trip. In the friendly confines of Kauffman Stadium, the Royals rank 11th in MLB with a 108 wRC+. They also sport the best strikeout rate in MLB at home at 17%, ahead of the Padres. So, if they remain patient against Williams and force him to stay in the strike zone, it should lead to hittable pitches.
Guardians vs Royals Prediction, Betting Analysis
We saw the Royals advantages in the last meeting between the two AL Central foes. Don't let the lowly Pirates and surging Astros change the outlook based on what we already know about the Twins and Royals. The odds indicate the teams are very even with the Royals as narrow -115 favorites. I'll gladly take them at -115, particularly with an elite 41-26 home record.
The Royals need to cut this game into three inning segments. If they secure the win in the first two three-inning segments, then that's the game for them. If they aren't able to secure the lead in the first two segments, then good luck coming back in the final stretch with the dominant trio of Hunter Gaddis, Cade Smith and Emmanuel Clase.
Pick: Royals Moneyline -118 via FanDuel
Moneyline
I'm backing the Royals moneyline here.
Run Line (Spread)
With the Guardians love of playing close games paired with the Royals shaky bullpen, the run line is a total wash for me. The Guardians are 33-36 ATS on the road, while the Royals are 39-30 ATS on the road this year.
Over/Under
I do have a play for the total here on the over, which the public and sharps concur with me on, as 86% of the handle and 83% of the money favors the over. Kauffman Stadium's statcast park factor ranks second in MLB at 105, but if we eliminate Coors Field to even out the playing field, that puts Kauffman as the most hitter friendly park. The over feels like the strong play in the series opener.
Guardians vs Royals Betting Trends
- 70% of the bets and 90% of the money are on the Royals on the moneyline.
- 86% of the bets and 83% of the money are on the over.
- 79% of the bets and 82% of the money are on the Royals to cover the run line.
Guardians Betting Trends
- The Guardians are 3-2 in their past five games.
- The Guardians are 3-2 against the run line in their past five games.
- The Guardians are 3-2 to the under in their past five games.
- The Guardians are 35-34 on the road.
Royals Betting Trends
- The Royals have lost five consecutive games.
- The Royals have lost four of their past five games on the run line.
- The Royals are 3-2 in favor of the over in their past five games.
- The Royals are 41-28 at Kauffman Stadium this year
