The Cleveland Guardians host the Minnesota Twins on May 8, 2026. First pitch from Progressive Field is scheduled for 7:15 p.m. ET. The game will be broadcast on Apple TV+.
The Guardians are favored by -149 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Twins are +123 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 7.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Twins vs Guardians prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Twins vs Guardians Odds
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -181 | 7.5 -108o / -112u | +123 |
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +149 | 7.5 -108o / -112u | -149 |
- Twins vs Guardians moneyline: Twins +123, Guardians -149
- Twins vs Guardians over/under: 7.5 (-108o / -112u)
- Twins vs Guardians spread: Twins +1.5 (-181), Guardians -1.5 (+149)
Twins vs Guardians Probable Pitchers
| LHP Connor Prielipp (MIN) | Stat | LHP Parker Messick (CLE) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | W-L | 3-1 |
| 0.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.1 |
| 3.86 / 3.46 | ERA / xERA | 2.40 / 2.86 |
| 4.14 / 4.41 | FIP / xFIP | 3.07 / 3.01 |
| 17.9 | K-BB% | 21.8 |
| 28.6 | GB% | 49.0 |
| .182 | BABIP | .247 |
| 106 | Stuff+ | 98 |
| 104 | Location+ | 109 |
Twins vs Guardians Expert MLB Picks
Story: Back the Guardians to Reign Supreme
The Twins head on the road to Cleveland to square off with the Guardians on Friday night in the first of a three-game set at Progressive Field.
Guardians left-hander Parker Messick is set to take the mound for Cleveland, while fellow lefty Connor Prielipp will be on the bump for the visiting Twins.
Below, I will break down this AL Central divisional battle and provide a same-game parlay (SGP) betting angle that you can take ahead of Friday night’s lefty duel.
Moneyline Pick: Guardians ML
We are in for a great pitching matchup on Friday night as both left-handed youngsters look to maintain some promising form to start their respective 2026 campaigns.
Over his first seven outings of the season, Messick has recorded an impressive 2.40 ERA, ranking inside the top 15 in all of baseball. The Guardians' 25-year-old has also posted a phenomenal WHIP thus far, ranking eighth in the big leagues with a 0.92 mark.
Despite taking the mound in just seven starts last season as well, Messick finished 2025 with a 2.72 ERA as a rookie and seems to be picking up right where he left off.
Twins lefty Prielipp is also having a rather successful rookie season thus far, with the 25-year-old allowing just eight hits across the first three starts of his career. The Minnesota youngster has recorded a 3.86 ERA thus far, to go along with an exceptional 0.93 WHIP.
While I have undoubtedly been very impressed by both young lefties over their first few starts of the season, I have more faith in the Guardians' lefty, as he already has a season under his belt in the major leagues.
Also, Messick will have a slight edge given the fact that he will be pitching in front of a Cleveland home crowd at Progressive Field.
Though Prielipp has been very reliable over the first three starts of his rookie year, I fear regression is coming sooner rather than later for the Twins' young prospect.
Not only do the Guardians have both a home-field and pitching edge ahead of Friday night's divisional clash, but Cleveland also has the far more experienced lineup when compared to that of Minnesota.
While the Twins' rookie left-hander has shown some promising form on the mound, his first "blow-up" start is right around the corner, and I think it could most definitely come on Friday night against a Guardians lineup that boasts heavy-contact prowess in the box.
Though Cleveland is in the midst of a slump, I expect them to revert back to their previous form in a favorable spot versus the last-placed team in the AL Central.
That said, I will be looking to back the Guardians on the moneyline for the front leg of our SGP ahead of Friday night's American League showdown.
Cleveland Guardians Player Prop: Jose Ramirez 2+ Total Bases
For the back end of our SGP for Friday’s matchup, I will be looking to target one of the best players in all of baseball in Guardians third baseman Jose Ramirez.
While it has been a very up-and-down 2026 campaign for Ramirez thus far, I think he sets up very well versus both Prielipp and a struggling Twins bullpen.
The Guardians slugger is coming off a phenomenal 2025 season in which he blasted 30 homers, drove in 85 runners (RBIs), and swiped a ridiculous 44 bases.
Cleveland’s seven-time All-Star is struggling at the plate in 2026, having recorded just a .215 batting average over the first six weeks of the season, along with six homers and 15 RBIs, which are surely on the lower side for his standards.
Ramirez has been one of the most consistent hitters in all of baseball in recent years, and I fully expect him to heat up at the plate sooner rather than later.
I think the Guardians superstar has a very ideal hitter profile to find success against the Twins rookie left-hander on Friday night.
Given his status as a switch-hitter, there is no doubt that Ramirez will look to take advantage of his versatility by batting from the right side of the plate due to the fact that Prielipp has shown far more susceptibility to damage by righties across the first three starts of his big-league career.
Ramirez's platoon advantage versus the Twins' young lefty will definitely allow him to see the ball better in the box, thus being able to generate far more power by pulling pitches with elite launch angle and exit velocity.
Though there is no doubt Prielipp has some impressive stuff, Ramirez will be the toughest matchup of his entire career thus far due to his tremendous plate discipline and lack of vulnerability to punchouts.
If Minnesota’s left-hander leaves some of his off-speed pitches low in the zone, Ramirez's heavy-contact style could most definitely result in the Guardians slugger ripping some extra-base hits.
That said, I will be looking to back Ramirez to exceed his 1.5 total base mark for the second leg of our SGP ahead of Friday night’s AL Central battle.
