Cubs vs Brewers Odds & Predictions
| Chicago Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line (Spread) |
-148 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | -1.5 +120 |
| Milwaukee Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line (Spread) |
+124 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | +1.5 -142 |
The Chicago Cubs and Milwaukee Brewers face off again on Wednesday at Wrigley Field in the third game of a four-game set. These NL Central rivals have split the series to this point after the Cubs won 6-3 in extras a night ago.
The Brewers’ lead in the NL Central is now down to 3 1/2 games, and the Cubs will attempt to close in before leaving town.
Chicago has struggled in the month of May after a hot start, but it'll hope that last night’s comeback can bolster it back into the postseason field.
Cubs vs Brewers odds for Wednesday have the Cubs as -148 moneyline favorites, with an over/under of 7.5 (-115o /-105u) as Shota Imanaga of Chicago squares off against Bryse Wilson of Milwaukee. Find my Cubs vs Brewers prediction on the first five innings (F5) spread for Wednesday below.
Chicago Cubs
Shota Imanaga will take the mound for the Cubs tonight. Among pitchers with 50+ innings pitched this season, his 0.84 ERA leads the entire league.
He has a 2.62 xERA and 2.20 FIP, so his results have been a bit lucky. This will come back the other way at some point, but the first-year player has had an impressive season.
Imanaga’s strong ERA is largely due to his 93.8% strand rate, which also is the highest in the majors.
Imanaga has a Stuff+ of just 96, which ranks 57th out of 100 pitchers. He's 10th in Location+, though, and 15th in Pitching+ due to his strong command.
The left-hander has a 87th-percentile whiff rate and 80th-percentile strikeout rate despite having middling stuff. His 90th-percentile walk rate has also helped him to keep baserunners off the basepaths and his ERA low.
After a hot start to the season offensively, the Cubs have cooled off considerably. They rank 22nd in wRC+ and 23rd in wOBA this season. They have the eighth-highest strikeout rate but walk at the fifth-highest rate, which has led to them still being 16th in OBP.
Chicago is ninth in barrel rate but just 20th in exit velocity and 21st in hard-hit rate, so the Statcast numbers back up its offensive performance to this point.
Things have been exceptionally bad this month, as the Cubs are 27th in wRC+ and wOBA in the month of May.
Maybe last night’s extra-inning win was what the Cubs’ offense needed to get hot, but that remains to be seen.
Milwaukee Brewers
Last night, the Brewers were no-hit until the eighth inning before they were finally able to break up the combined no-hit bid. They were then able to score in the ninth to force extra innings before falling short in the 10th frame.
They get another tough matchup today in Imanaga, so the offense will need to come alive if they want to avoid possibly dropping this series to the Cubs.
Offense hasn’t been much of an issue for Milwaukee this season. It ranks fourth in wRC+ and wOBA. The Brewers also walk at the sixth-highest rate and rank ninth in ISO.
Unfortunately for them, Imanaga doesn’t walk many batters, so their plate discipline may not be rewarded today.
Left-handed pitching has been a source of trouble for the Brewers this season. They're 21st in wRC+ when facing lefties and 20th in wOBA, with the seventh-highest strikeout rate in MLB.
This hasn’t affected their overall numbers for the season, as they have the least amount of plate appearances against left-handers. It could be that it’s a product of small sample size or instead, it could be an indication of things to come.
After being used out of the bullpen for all of last year, Bryse Wilson will get the start for the Brewers today. He's split time between the bullpen and rotation, starting in six of his 13 appearances. He’s primarily been starting since late April and has been dependable, despite not going very deep into games.
Wilson hasn't allowed more than two runs in any outing this season, leading to a solid 2.86 ERA. He has a 90.3% strand rate, which leads to a 4.44 xERA and a 4.77 FIP. Wilson ranks 87th in Stuff+ out of 128 pitchers with 40+ innings pitched and is 93rd in Pitching+.
Wilson is below average in both strikeout percentage (43rd percentile) and walk percentage (33rd percentile), and his batted ball metrics haven't been strong. He ranks in the 10th percentile in hard-hit rate, 40th percentile in barrel rate and 28th percentile in average exit velocity allowed.
Cubs vs. Brewers
Betting Pick & Prediction
Despite its offensive struggles, I think that Chicago has an advantage in tonight’s matchup. Imanaga is the better of the two starting pitchers and I think he should be able to put together another quality start against this Milwaukee team, which struggles to hit lefties.
Also, Wilson’s results have been better than his underlying numbers would suggest.
The Chicago offense isn’t one of the better units in the league right now, but I’m not looking to back Wilson, and I think that the Cubs may knock in a few runs against him.
Milwaukee’s bullpen has performed better than the Cubs’ this season despite its 10th inning meltdown last night.
For that reason, I feel more comfortable taking the Cubs in the first five innings as the pitching situation is more known.
Pick: Cubs F5 -0.5 Runs (-110) | Play to -115
