Cubs vs Brewers Odds & Prediction
| Chicago Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+1.5 -160 | 6.5 -105o / -115u | +115 |
| Milwaukee Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-1.5 +135 | 6.5 -105o / -115u | -135 |
This isn't just a regular May baseball game. It's game with lasting implications throughout the rest of the year, a battle between the two top teams in the National League Central.
The Milwaukee Brewers and Chicago Cubs have already separated from the rest of the NL Central, and these games matter just as much as games in August. One series in May could dictate who wins this division.
Here's my Cubs vs Brewers preview — and Cubs vs Brewers moneyline prediction — for the Sunday series finale at historic Wrigley Field.
Chicago Cubs
The Cubs' rotation has been among the best in baseball this year, and Javier Assad is one of the main reasons for the hot start. Assad is in his first full season as a starter, posting a 1.97 ERA in 32.2 innings with 27 strikeouts. He's not a hard thrower, but his sinker/cutter combination keeps the hitters on edge.
While Assad has pitched great, the one thing he lacks is length. He's thrown more than six innings in just one start, which is a huge problem considering the Cubs' bullpen is the worst in baseball. Craig Counsell already removed Adbert Alzolay from the closing role, and Hector Neris lives on the tightrope as the current closer. Even if the Cubs hold a late lead, the bullpen could quickly give it up — just like in game one of the series.
The Cubs' lineup is not the same as it will be in a few weeks, as Cody Bellinger and Seiya Suzuki remain on the shelf. This has posed a challenge in replacing the two lineup mainstays, and Chicago's offense has scored three or fewer runs in four of the past six games. Offensively, the Cubs boast a 101 wRC+, putting them 15th in MLB.
There isn't a clear go-to hitting option outside of Nico Hoerner in their lineup. Only three players have an average over .260: Hoerner, Mike Tauchman and Michael Busch. Busch is coming down to earth after a surprising hot start, hitting .236 with an OPS below .600 in the past 15 games. Dansby Swanson and Ian Happ hitting below .225 doesn't help the Cubs' chances of improving on offense.
Milwaukee Brewers
Freddy Peralta takes the hill for Milwaukee, and he's quickly morphing into one of the premier pitchers in MLB. He's always been really good, but he regularly got overshadowed by Corbin Burnes, who's now in Baltimore, and Brandon Woodruff, who's hurt. Peralta owns a 3.21 ERA in 33 innings with 45 strikeouts. The 27-year-old Brewers ace ranks in the 93rd percentile in Whiff rate and 95th percentile in K rate, per Statcast.
The biggest reason for the Brewers' scalding start is the lineup. Milwaukee ranks second in wRC+ at 118, only behind the Dodgers. No one on the Brewers' roster jumps off the page besides Christian Yelich (on the IL), but most of their lineup is playing above their weight. It's a good thing right now, but it could lead to regression later if Blake Perkins and Brice Turang's hot starts don't last.
I'm looking at William Contreras and Willy Adames for the Brewers, two veterans at two of the most important positions on the diamond. Contreras ranks in the 97th percentile in hard-hit rate and 98th percentile in average exit velocity; he is arguably the best full-time catcher in baseball. Adames has discovered his power stroke in the past seven games, connecting on three homers, leading to a strong .615 OPS.
Cubs vs. Brewers
Betting Pick & Prediction
I'm fully on the Peralta contending for NL Cy Young Award train, and Assad looks like the ideal fade candidate. He's throwing well, but his underlying numbers show some regression is due.
My larger concern is the Cubs' poor bullpen, which might be lighter since Neris threw three of the past four days. If he's out, I have no clue how Chicago finishes this game in the pen.
I love the Brewers as narrow favorites and would be comfortable playing them to -150.
