The St. Louis Cardinals look to build momentum on Sunday night in the series finale against their division rival Chicago Cubs.
After dropping the first two games of the series, the Cardinals scored four runs after the seventh inning to finally take one home. They turn to Miles Mikolas looking to split the four-game set. Mikolas is fresh off two straight quality starts, though was blown up by Chicago back in mid-July.
Opposite him is left-hander Justin Steele for the Cubs. Chicago enters as slight favorites thanks to both home field and the starting pitcher advantage. Steele has struggled of late, allowing 5+ runs in two of his last three starts.
Here’s a Cubs vs Cardinals parlay for Sunday Night Baseball, which features SGP picks for Cody Bellinger, Masyn Winn and Miles Mikolas.
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
Cubs vs Cardinals Parlay: Sunday Night Baseball SGP Picks
- Cody Bellinger RBI (+155)
- Miles Mikolas Over 5.5 Hits Allowed (-150)
- Masyn Winn Over 1.5 Total Bases (+135)
Parlay Odds: +800 (bet365)
Cody Bellinger RBI (+155)
Cubs vs. Cardinals | 7:10 p.m. ET, ESPN
Sitting in the cleanup spot for the Cubs, Cody Bellinger has been one of the most reliable bats in that lineup. Over the last five games, Bellinger has driven a runner home three times (60%) and is hitting over .300 since the start of July.
Mikolas is definitely a pitcher to fade here. He ranks in the bottom 15% of all pitchers in xBA (.274) and his hard-hit rate remains above 40%. This is a pitch-to-contact type of right-hander and the Cubs should be threatening to score plenty on Sunday night.
Bellinger’s RBI prop is also Action Network’s second-biggest edge of the game (+8.6%). The projections have Bellinger around 0.7 RBI.
Last time out when Mikolas played against the Cubs, Bellinger was sidelined. But the one thing to take away were the plethora of base runners (8) and runs scored (6) in that game from Chicago.
In what is a good matchup for the Cubs, I’m siding with the Action PRO projections here and backing Bellinger to drive a runner in to start this parlay.
Miles Mikolas Over 5.5 Hits Allowed (-150)
Cubs vs. Cardinals | 7:10 p.m. ET, ESPN
We continue to fade Mikolas here with a number that he’s been over in six of his last seven starts. As mentioned earlier, Mikolas struggles to strike out the opposition and has a high xBA.
At this point in his career, Mikolas is a replacement-level pitcher. He hasn’t generated much soft contact and teams, like the Cubs a few weeks ago, have taken advantage. In general this season, Mikolas has allowed 6+ hits in 14-of-22 starts (64%).
The other plus to this bet is Mikolas has elite control (96th percentile in BB%). Between not generating many whiffs and not walking batters, this is the perfect recipe for an over. He also has shown the ability to pitch deep into games — 22+ batters faced in each of his last 12 starts.
Masyn Winn Over 1.5 Total Bases (+135)
Cubs vs. Cardinals | 7:10 p.m. ET, ESPN
Based on the rolling xwOBA leaderboard over at Baseball Savant, Masyn Winn has been crushing the ball at the plate. If you look at his baseline stats — you’d think otherwise. That’s because most of his hard hits and great at-bats have not led to base hits.
I’m going to bet into that unluckiness from the leadoff hitter here. A huge plus with Winn is that he rarely strikes out. Take away his three strikeout game against the Nationals on July 28, and Winn has struck out just once over the last 10.
He is also one of four current Cardinals with a wRC+ above 100 against left-handed pitching. While Steele is a tough matchup, the southpaw has not found his groove on the mound.
Winn is not going to barrel baseballs consistently, but he is in the 68th percentile in both xBA and sweet-spot%. Paired with his speed, he’s always an extra-base threat and he’s gone over 1.5 bases in three of his last five starts. He’s also been on base in 8-of-10.
Normally I’d look toward Willson Contreras here, but he has been slumping of late (.143 average in last 7 days). So I’m willing to back Winn who has been seeing the ball well at the plate and helps boost our parlay odds near to 10-1.
