The Detroit Tigers (78-73) take on the Kansas City Royals (82-69) on Tuesday night at Kauffman Stadium. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40 p.m. ET on MLB.TV. These two AL Central teams are both in the hunt for a postseason berth after going through some rough losing seasons over the last handful of years.
Detroit enters Tuesday nine games out of the AL Central lead and in fourth place in the division, but only 1 1/2 games out of the final AL wild-card spot after a late-season surge. The Royals are five games behind the Guardians for the AL Central lead. They hold a 2 1/2-game lead for the second wild-card spot over the Twins.
Royals ace Cole Ragans takes the mound on Tuesday night and squares off against 2018 No. 1 overall pick Casey Mize of the Tigers. Find the latest Tigers-Royals odds, a head-to-head breakdown of Ragans and Mize, and my Tigers vs Royals prediction and F5 pick for Tuesday, September 17, below.
Tigers-Royals Predictions
- Tigers-Royals Picks: Royals F5 -0.5
My Tigers-Royals best bet and pick is on the Royals F5 -0.5, where I see value at -130. The best line is available at DraftKings, as well as other sportsbooks — make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals Odds
| Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+135 | 8 -105o / -115u | +1.5 -155 |
| Royals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-160 | 8 -105o / -115u | -1.5 +130 |
- Tigers-Royals Moneyline: Tigers +135 | Royals -160
- Tigers-Royals Over/Under: 8 total runs (-105o / -115u)
- Tigers-Royals Spread: Tigers +1.5 (-155) | Royals 1.5 (+130)
Tigers at Royals Probable Starting Pitchers
| RHP Casey Mize (DET) | Stat | LHP Cole Ragans (KC) |
|---|---|---|
| 2-6 | W-L | 11-9 |
| 1.3 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 4.6 |
| 4.47 / 4.73 | ERA /xERA | 3.32 / 3.28 |
| 3.97 / 3.98 | FIP / xFIP | 2.99 / 3.42 |
| 1.40 | WHIP | 1.15 |
| 11.6% | K-BB% | 21.2% |
| 47.9% | GB% | 39.6% |
| 106 | Stuff+ | 109 |
| 103 | Location+ | 100 |
Cody Goggin’s Tigers-Royals Previews
Tigers Betting Preview: Mixed Bag for Casey Mize
Casey Mize will get the start for the Tigers tonight. The former No. 1 overall pick has a 4.47 ERA this season over 94 2/3 innings pitched.
Despite a Stuff+ of 106, Mize has just 71 strikeouts this season. His strikeout rate of 17.2% ranks in just the 11th percentile among qualified pitchers.
Mize has done well to avoid walks, ranking in the 86th percentile in walk rate allowed. He's generated ground balls 48.6% of the time, which ranks in the 79th percentile.
Many of these balls are hit hard however, as Mize ranks in the ninth percentile in hard-hit rate allowed, 39th percentile in barrel rate allowed and sixth percentile in average exit velocity allowed.
On the year, the Tigers rank 22nd in wRC+, 24th in wOBA, 22nd in SLG and 20th in ISO. Detroit ranks 21st in hard-hit rate, 15th in barrel rate and 21st in exit velocity.
Detroit’s offense has been on fire as of late. Over the last 30 days, it ranks ninth in the league with a wRC+ of 106. During this time, the Tigers are also 10th in wOBA, ninth in SLG and 11th in ISO.
The Tigers have the fifth-highest strikeout rate in this time period, but they also rank 12th in walk rate.
Facing lefties has been an issue for Detroit this season. The Tigers rank 23rd in wRC+ (91) against left-handed pitchers. From this side of the plate, they're also 25th in wOBA, 22nd in SLG and 25th in OBP.
Royals Betting Preview: Strong Campaign for Cole Ragans
Kansas City has been just below average this season with a wRC+ of 99, which ranks 17th in the league. It's 12th in wOBA, 11th in SLG, 15th in OBP and 11th in ISO.
The Royals have the second-lowest strikeout rate in the league, but also the third-lowest walk rate (most of their at-bats result in a ball being put in play).
This year, the Royals rank seventh in hard-hit rate and fourth in average exit velocity, but they're just 17th in barrel rate. This is a bit surprising that the Royals rank this low in barrels, as they have the fifth-highest fly-ball rate in the league since they barely hit any ground balls.
Kansas City’s offense has fallen off just a tad as of late. It still ranks 17th in wRC+ over the last 30 days, but its mark goes from being 99 for the full season to just 93 over this time period.
Cole Ragans will be the Royals’ starter tonight. The 26-year old lefty has looked fantastic this year, posting a 3.32 ERA and a 3.28 xERA this season. Over 173 1/3 innings, Ragans has struck out 211 opponents. Ragans has a 91st-percentile whiff rate, 90th-percentile strikeout rate and a 109 Stuff+.
He's shown fine control with a 43rd-percentile walk rate this season. He has a 39% ground-ball rate as he isn’t a heavy ground-ball pitcher, but he doesn’t limit hard contact at an above-average rate.
Ragans ranks in the 77th percentile in barrel rate allowed, 76th percentile in hard hit rate allowed and 64th percentile in average exit velocity allowed.
Tigers-Royals Prediction, Betting Analysis for F5 Spread
I’m not a huge fan of Mize due to his inability to strike hitters out and his hard contact rates allowed. If Mize can take his high-level stuff and transform this into punchouts, then I think that he could take another step from here.
However, it doesn’t look like he's found this yet at this point in his career.
The Royals don’t strike out or walk either, so we'll see plenty of balls put in play in this matchup.
Unfortunately for Mize, Kansas City hits a lot of fly balls and hits them hard, which isn’t a good fit for his contact profile. Thus, I think the Royals will be able to score against him.
On the other side, Detroit’s offense has been much better as of late, but it'll strike out a ton and it's struggled against lefties. Ragans will be able to play to these disadvantages if he can have a good strikeout game, which looks to be the likely scenario.
I think the Royals have the better pitcher on the mound tonight with a good matchup.
I like taking Kansas City (-130) to have a lead after the first five innings of this ball game.
Pick: Royals F5 -0.5 (-130) | Play to -140
Moneyline
Kansas City has been stellar at home this season with a 45-31 record.
Detroit hasn’t been too bad on the road this year, though, as it's 39-37 straight-up away from home.
I’m not looking to back the Royals on the full game moneyline or spread due to the differences between these two bullpens. Kansas City ranks 24th in bullpen ERA this season while Detroit is sixth.
This may be offset by the difference in starting pitchers, but with how hot the Tigers’ offense has been as of late, I’m not looking to go against this by laying -170.
Run Line (Spread)
Both of these teams have been great against the spread this season. The Royals are 83-68 ATS overall, including 43-33 at home. The Tigers are 81-70 overall and are 44-32 ATS as the road team.
With how hot Detroit’s offense has been and how cool Kansas City’s has been, there's a scenario where Detroit can win this game outright — or at least keep it close.
There's some value on the Tigers +1.5 at -148, but it’s not a bet I’m looking to lock in.
Over/Under
Kaufman Stadium has been neutral this year in terms of totals. Kansas City home overs are 37-38-1. Meanwhile, Tigers’ road games are 41-32-3 to the over this year.
I don’t have a lean either way on the total for this game. Ragans has an opportunity to have a stellar day if Detroit plays like it has been all year, but if we get the second-half-of-the-season version of this offense, this makes for a much tougher day and completely changes the complexion.
Because I don’t know exactly what to expect, I’m going to steer clear of this total, as I could see it going either way.
Tigers-Royals Betting Trends
- 85% of the bets and 70% of the money are on the Royals moneyline.
- 91% of the bets and 88% of the money are on the over.
- 93% of the bets and 85% of the money are on the Royals to cover the run line.
Tigers Betting Trends
- The Tigers are 3-2 in their last five games.
- The Tigers are 3-2 in their last five games against the spread.
- The Tigers are 44-32 in their road games against the spread.
- The totals have gone over in one of Tigers' last five games.
- The totals have gone over in 35 of Tigers' 75 last games at home.
Royals Betting Trends
- The Royals are 2-3 in their last five games.
- The Royals are 3-2 in their last five games against the spread.
- The Royals are 40-35 in their road games against the spread.
- The totals have gone over in two of Royals' last five games.
- The totals have gone over in 37 of Royals' 76 last games at home.
Tigers-Royals Key Injuries
Tigers Injuries
| Player | Status |
|---|---|
| INF Javier Baez | Right hip surgery (60-day IL; out for season) |
| RHP Alex Faedo | Right shoulder strain (60-day IL; out for season) |
Royals Injuries
| Player | Status |
|---|---|
| RHP James McArthur | Right elbow tightness (injury suffered Monday, undergoing testing Tuesday) |
| RHP Michael Lorenzen | Left hamstring strain (15-day IL) |
| RHP Hunter Harvey | Back tightness (15-day IL) |
| 1B Vinnie Pasquantino | Right thumb fracture (10-day IL) |
