Thanks to a gritty 3-1 victory in Tuesday's matchup, the Tigers (79-73) remain only 1 1/2 games back of the Twins (80-71) for the final wild-card spot and three games back of the Royals (82-70) entering Wednesday, September 18.
Detroit will have an excellent opportunity to keep pace in the AL wild-card race on Wednesday, when presumptive Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal will take on Alec Marsh. Find my Tigers vs Royals prediction below.
Tigers vs Royals Prediction
- Tigers vs Royals picks: Tigers First Seven Innings -0.5 (-115 | Play to -120)
My Tigers vs Royals best bet is on Detroit's Seven Inning run-line (-0.5), where I see value at -115. The best line is available at DraftKings, as well as other sportsbooks — make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals Odds
| Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line (Spread) |
-135 | 8 -1105o / -115u | -1.5 +122 |
| Royals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line (Spread) |
+115 | 8 -105o / -115u | +1.5 -145 |
Tigers-Royals Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Tarik Skubal (DET) | Stat | RHP Alec Marsh (KC) |
|---|---|---|
| 16-4 | W-L | 8-8 |
| 5.4 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.5 |
| 2.50/2.78 | ERA /xERA | 4.52/4.92 |
| 2.56/2.86 | FIP / xFIP | 4.19/4.16 |
| 0.94 | WHIP | 1.23 |
| 25.5% | K-BB% | 15.7% |
| 44.9% | GB% | 37.7% |
| 103 | Stuff+ | 100 |
| 103 | Location+ | 100 |
Nick Martin’s Tigers vs Royals Preview
Detroit Tigers Betting Preview: Red-Hot Kitties Still A Playoff Longshot
The numbers suggest a Tigers playoff berth is still a long shot (FanGraphs projects a 22.0% chance of claiming a playoff spot) entering Wednesday's matchups. As a baseball fan, that feels a little low based on all the momentum of Detroit's recent 17-7 run. But with just ten games remaining, there's not much time to gain ground.
Skubal will likely make his third-to-last start in this crucial matchup. He has remained comparably dominant, posting a 2.27 ERA and 2.90 xFIP over his past 43 2/3 innings with 10.7 K/9 and a .208 xBA allowed.
Since last season versus Skubal, opponents have had a miss rate of 24% on pitches in the strike zone, which is the highest mark of any starter with at least 120 innings.
The Tigers rank ninth in wRC+ over the past 30 days (108), posting a 103 wRC+ against righties since August 1st (across 1,225 plate appearances).
Colt Keith was removed from Tuesday's game due to a right shoulder injury and will likely be unavailable for this matchup.
Kansas City Royals Betting Preview: Offensive Worries
In four starts since being recalled from Triple-A on August 26th, Marsh has pitched very well, allowing a 3.60 ERA across 20 innings with strong underlying results, including a 3.51 xFIP, 10.4 K/9, a .242 xBA allowed, and a 101 Stuff+ mark.
Losing Vinnie Pasquantino has hurt Kansas City's offense, which ranks 19th in wRC+ over the past 30 days. The Royals have struggled against southpaws all year, ranking 20th in wRC+
Tigers vs Royals Prediction, Betting Analysis
The Tigers have a great opportunity to win another critical matchup with Skubal on the mound.
While Marsh has been excellent since returning on August 26th, he does look to be earning a lot of market respect here, considering the matchup and how modest the Royals' offensive play has been.
In the splits relevant to this game, the Tigers' offense has been the more productive unit for a large sample size and has been in far better form recently.
The Tigers' bullpen has been heavily worked of late, though, particularly the high-leverage arms of the unit. Therefore, my favorite way to play this is taking a better number to back the Tigers in the first seven innings and just back on a strong showing from Skubal.
Pick: Tigers to Win the First Seven Innings (-0.5 at -115, DraftKings) | Play to (-0.5 at -120)
Moneyline
Detroit is 40-37 on the road this season. Detroit is 33-26 as a favorite this season.
Kansas City is 45-32 at home. Kansas City is 35-44 as an underdog.
Run Line (Spread)
The Tigers are 22-15 against the run-line after a road win this season (6.0% ROI). Detroit is 45-32 on the road ATS.
The Royals are 43-34 ATS at home. The Royals are 44-35 ATS as an underdog.
Over/Under
Totals are 41-33-3 (O/U) when Detroit is the road team. Totals are 37-39-1 (O/U) when Kansas City is the home team. Totals are 30-27-2 (O/U) when Detroit is the favorite. Totals are 36-38-5 (O/U) when Kansas City is an underdog.
Tigers vs Royals Betting Trends
66% of the bets and 13% of the money are on the Tigers on the moneyline.
- 81% of the bets and 80% of the money are on the over.
- 72% of the bets and 67% of the money are on the Tigers to cover the run line.
Tigers Betting Trends
- The Tigers are 7-3 in their past ten road games
- The Tigers are 8-2 in their past ten games
- The Tigers are 4-1 in their past five games against the spread
Royals Betting Trends
- The Royals are 4-6 in their past ten home games
- The Royals are 5-5 in their past ten games
- The Royals are 2-3 in their past five games against the spread
