The Pittsburgh Pirates host the Detroit Tigers on July 22, 2025. First pitch from PNC Park is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on SportsNet PT.
Read our Tigers vs Pirates prediction and MLB pick below.
My Tigers vs Pirates Prediction
- Tigers vs Pirates Picks: Under 8
My Tigers vs Pirates best bet is on the under. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Tigers vs Pirates Odds, Spread
| Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +113 | 8 -109o / -111u | -149 |
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -137 | 8 -109o / -111u | +123 |
Tigers vs Pirates Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Casey Mize (DET) | Stat | RHP Mitch Keller (PIT) |
|---|---|---|
| 9-3 | W-L | 3-10 |
| 1.3 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.6 |
| 3.15 / 3.29 | ERA / xERA | 3.48 / 3.82 |
| 3.89 / 4.02 | FIP / xFIP | 3.33 / 4.03 |
| 1,22 | WHIP | 1.14 |
| 14.9% | K-BB% | 13.2% |
| 42% | GB% | 45.4% |
| 96 | Stuff+ | 95 |
| 107 | Location+ | 101 |
Tony Sartori’s Tigers vs Pirates Preview
Detroit Tigers Betting Preview
The first overall pick of the 2018 MLB Draft, Casey Mize, is finally having his breakout campaign in 2025.
Through 16 starts, Mize is 9-3 with a 3.15 ERA and 1.22 WHIP.
He earned an All-Star nod this year, and the underlying metrics suggest more of the same can be expected in the second half of the season.
Entering this matchup, the right-hander ranks in the top half of the league in expected ERA (xERA), expected batting average (xBA) allowed, walk rate and hard-hit rate allowed.
This success is likely to continue against Pittsburgh, a team Mize is 1-0 against through two meetings with a 3.27 ERA and 1.00 WHIP.
Following Mize is a bullpen that is due for positive regression.
Despite poor surface-level stats, the Tigers’ relief corps ranks in the top half of the league in expected fielding independent pitching (xFIP).
However, run support for this pitching staff may be difficult to come by against Mitch Keller.
Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview
Keller has quietly put together a strong campaign. Through 20 starts, he sports a 3.48 ERA and 1.14 WHIP.
Like Mize, Keller's underlying metrics are equally impressive. He ranks in the top half of the league in xERA, walk rate and barrel rate.
Also like Mize, Keller has fared well against Tuesday's opponent, allowing two or fewer runs in four of five career meetings.
Keller’s biggest challenge in this matchup will be the Pirates’ typical lack of run support for their pitchers.
This season, Pittsburgh ranks last in runs scored per game, slugging percentage, OPS and home runs.
Tigers vs Pirates Prediction, Betting Analysis
Keller’s 3-10 record is far more indicative of his team’s inability to score than his pitching ability. Just ask Paul Skenes.
Keller is well above league average in ERA, hits allowed and WHIP.
Detroit’s lineup is the biggest threat to the under not cashing in this matchup, but Keller can handle the task, even if it’s en route to another low-scoring loss.
Pick: Under 8
Moneyline
I lean toward Detroit, but I don't want to fade Keller.
Run Line (Spread)
I also like Detroit to cover, but I'm staying away for the same reason listed above.
Over/Under
As mentioned, I'm betting Under 8.
