Diamondbacks vs Mets Odds, Pick & Prediction (5/31)
| Arizona Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-1.5 +172 | 7.5 +102o / -124u | +108 |
| New York Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+1.5 -210 | 7.5 +102o / -124u | -126 |
May cannot end soon enough for the Mets. They have the fewest wins in the league during the month and have players getting cut after throwing their equipment into the stands on the way off the field.
The Diamondbacks have been treading water a bit themselves, and sit six games under .500 after last season’s run to the World Series. They fell to New York in Game 1 of this series after losing their ace Zac Gallen to an injury after just six pitches.
Friday’s Diamondbacks vs. Mets odds make New York the slight favorite as Arizona will look to bounce back on the road. Find my Diamondbacks vs. Mets prediction and pick below.
Arizona Diamondbacks
We have seen both Jordan Montgomery and Blake Snell struggle mightily after signing right before the start of the season and missing Spring Training. Montgomery signed with Arizona on March 29 and has a 4.69 ERA over his first seven starts.
Oddly enough, Montgomery’s first start was actually his best, so it’s not even like he is pitching himself into shape. He has allowed at least two runs in six straight starts and his 4.62 xERA indicates those results might be here to stay.
Montgomery doesn’t allow a ton of hard contact, but he also doesn’t miss bats. He ranks in the bottom 10% of the league in strikeout rate. His K/9 rate is just 5.36 this season, down from 7.92 last year. His velocity is down and his normally reliable sinker is not working.
We saw what this Diamondbacks offense is capable of during last season’s postseason run, but they have been fairly mid this season. They rank 10th in scoring, 14th in wRC+ and 15th in wOBA. Over the last two weeks, the Snakes have been a bottom-five offensive team.
New York Mets
Injuries have derailed the once-promising career of Luis Severino, who has made just 40 starts over the past five years. Now seemingly healthy, Severino has made 10 starts in his first season with the Mets and has looked good, with a 3.22 ERA and 3.43 xERA.
Early in his career, Severino only used a three-pitch mix: fastball, slider and changeup. Now, his slider and changeup are his most infrequent pitches. Instead, he has added a sinker, sweeper and cutter to his mix. His sinker has been his second-most used pitch and his most effective pitch.
His new sinker usage has him sitting in the top 15% of the league with a 52.1% ground-ball rate. Opponents are hitting just .191 against the sinker. While Severino doesn’t generate a lot of strikeouts, his sweeper has been his most effective punchout pitch.
New York’s offense has been a major disappointment this season. The Mets rank bottom 10 in the league in runs and wOBA. There is nobody in this lineup that a pitcher would fear.
Diamondbacks vs. Mets
Betting Pick & Prediction
Whether Jorge Lopez actually called the Mets "the worst team in probably the whole f—ing MLB" is under question. But they might be, because no team has fewer wins during May than the Mets.
Arizona has not looked as dangerous as it did last season but it still has a ton of talent in this lineup. Christian Walker, Ketel Marte and Joc Pederson are all having good seasons, but the Diamondbacks desperately need Corbin Carroll to get going and snap out of this sophomore slump.
The Diamondbacks rank 11th in the league in on-base percentage and I still like this lineup a lot more than New York’s. The Mets don’t have a single starter batting over .275 or with an OPS above .775.
The Mets have the starting pitcher advantage with Severino over Montgomery, but after the starters come out of the game, you’re going to feel a lot better having a Diamondbacks ticket. The Mets bullpen has been a nightmare recently.
New York’s bullpen has a 4.90 ERA during May and has blown seven saves, the most in the league. This group cannot find the struck zone. The Mets’ relievers have a 5.00 BB/9 rate over the last month. Just over the last two weeks, this bullpen has a 6.70 ERA and is now without closer Edwin Diaz.
This comes down to me thinking Arizona is the better team, so I’ll take the Snakes here as an underdog.
