Diamondbacks vs Padres Odds & Prediction
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+106 | 7.5 -108o / -112u | -1.5 +176 |
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-124 | 7.5 -108o / -112u | +1.5 -215 |
After a discouraging loss on Friday, the Diamondbacks enter Saturday 3 1/2 games back of the Cardinals for the final NL wild-card spot.
Over the last five games, Arizona has played to a record of 5-5 despite averaging six runs per game, and scoring no less than three in any matchup. Pitching has been the D-backs' downfall — they own the second-worst ERA at 4.72. Brandon Pfaadt will start for the Diamondbacks in this matchup, hoping to better his 4.28 ERA and collect his fourth win of the season.
Pfaadt will be opposed by knuckleballer Matt Waldron, who has been a pleasant surprise with a 3.56 ERA across 93 and 2/3 innings for the Padres.
See how I think this NL West clash at Petco Park will play out in my Saturday Diamondbacks vs Padres MLB betting preview below.
Arizona Diamondbacks
The Diamondbacks' pitching staff has been highly disappointing — they rank second to last even in park adjusted ERA. Arizona's defensive play has remained solid by most indicators; it is third in Outs Above Average (21), 15th in DRS (9), and third in fielding percentage (.988).
If the pitching staff can start to find better form, the Diamondbacks could become a scrappy and formidable side once again.
Brandon Pfaadt's 4.28 ERA across 103 innings has been far from the greatest concern, but it is worse than many analysts projected entering the season based upon his strong underlying profile. Pfaadt held a Pitching+ rating of 105 last season, and showed how high his upside was in NLDS and NLCS.
Pfaadt owns a Stuff+ rating of 106 this season and a Pitching+ rating of 105. He has pitched to an xERA of 3.36 and an xFIP of 3.84. He has been aggressive in looking to get ahead in the count, as his first-pitch strike percentage of 72 is the highest mark of any qualified starting pitcher, and he has walked just 6.1% of batters.
Pfaadt has stranded only 67.6% of baserunners, which has been the key reason for his inflated ERA.
The Diamondbacks offense has been on fire of late. Over the last month, they have hit to a wRC+ of 125 with a .345 wOBA. In the same span, they hold a wRC+ of 130 against right-handed pitching, and own the third best BB/K of 0.55.
Ketel Marte left Friday's matchup with lower-back tightness, and is considered day-to-day ahead of this matchup.
San Diego Padres
Matt Waldron has provided an exciting story for all baseball fans, as he has found success while throwing knuckleballs 39.1% of the time this season. Waldron's 3.56 ERA ranks 19th among qualified NL starters entering this matchup.
Waldron owns an xERA of 3.72 and an xFIP of 4.13 this season. Over the last five outings, Waldron has pitched to an xFIP of 4.65 and an xBA of .248.
Waldron faced the Diamondbacks on June 8, and he was dominant allowing just three hits and one earned run across six innings.
He holds a Stuff+ rating of just 81 this season — however, it's hard to say that his knuckleball is accurately reflected based upon that rating.
If Fernando Tatis and Xander Bogaerts are able to return in strong form, the Padres could have one of the deepest lineups in baseball, as even with those two sidelined their form has been excellent — not that Bogaerts was playing at an acceptable level prior to his injury.
Over the last 30 days, the Padres have hit to a wRC+ of 131 against right-handed pitching, and own the lowest strikeout rate in the league at just 16.1%.
Diamondbacks vs. Padres
Betting Pick & Prediction
It seems like Arizona's excellent offensive play has flown under the radar to some extent because it is still not winning a ton of ballgames. If the D-backs can put up another strong offensive performance tonight, as we have seen in each of the last four games, it could lead to a better result with Pfaadt on the mound.
Pfaadt continues to profile as an above-average starter, and he should provide the Diamondbacks with a starting pitching edge in this matchup against Waldron.
These teams have hit to highly comparable splits against right-handed pitching recently, and the Diamondbacks have fielded the ball more effectively once again all season.
With Pfaadt providing a slight pitching edge, Arizona looks to be worthy of being a favorite in the first five innings. At -110 or better, there is value backing the Diamondbacks to win the first five innings.
Pick: Arizona Diamondbacks F5 Moneyline -105 (Bet365, Play to -110)
