Diamondbacks vs. Padres Odds, Pick
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+102 | 7 -114o / -106u | -1.5 +168 |
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-120 | 7 -114o / -106u | +1.5 -205 |
Due to a five-game losing streak, the Padres' lead over the Diamondbacks (and Reds, Giants and Cardinals) for the final NL Wild Card spot has dwindled to just a half-game.
Arizona won the series opener against San Diego on a controversial strike-three call on Thursday night, and now have the opportunity to move back into a playoff spot despite its ugly start to the season.
The Diamondbacks are slight underdogs in this critical NL West matchup, as talented young righty Brandon Pfaadt (4.32 ERA, 73 IP) will matchup against Michael King (3.82 ERA, 73 IP). Diamondbacks vs Padres odds have the Padres as -120 moneyline favorites, with an over/under of 7 (-114o / -106u) — find my Diamondbacks vs Padres prediction on the total in my game preview below.
Arizona Diamondbacks
The battle for the final two Wild Card spots in the NL has been a bit of a turtle race to this point, and for that reason the Diamondbacks still have a solid chance to find a way back into the playoffs despite their 30-33 record. FanGraphs currently offers them a 34.2% chance of getting in.
The Diamondbacks offense seems to be rounding into form, as it owns a 137 wRC+ over the last seven days, and a 97 wRC+ over the last two weeks. Corbin Carroll is showing signs of life at the plate, batting .303 over his last 33 plate appearances. Given that his horrid form this year has been a key reason for the D-Backs underachieving, a potential return to form would be a significant turn of events.
Brandon Pfaadt entered this year with high expectations after some eye-opening performances during the postseason, including a stellar 1.86 ERA in two NLCS starts. This season, he's underachieved his 2.78 xERA by a significant margin (4.32 actual ERA), and he also owns a 3.59 xFIP. He owns a Stuff+ rating of 105 and Location+ rating of 107.
Stranding only 59% of baserunners has been a key reason for Pfaadt's inflated ERA relative to underlying metrics. He has allowed a .629 slug with runners in scoring position (RISP) — if that mark regresses toward the .299 slug allowed with the bases empty, it would lead to drastically better results.
Over the last two seasons, Pfaadt has allowed a 1.015 OPS with RISP, which is the fourth-highest mark among starters who have thrown 85 or more innings.
San Diego Padres
The Padres offense has been spectacular against right-handed pitching this season. They own a wRC+ of 119 against RHP, which ranks second to only the Yankees.
Over the last 30 days they own a wRC+ of 122 against right-handers, with the lowest strikeout rate in MLB at just 17.4%.
Manny Machado's status for this matchup is unclear, as he was held out of Thursday's lineup due to a hip injury, though he was able to pinch-hit.
Michael King has found steady results as a starter, as he owns a 4.02 xERA and 3.79 xFIP in 2024. He owns a Stuff+ rating of 94, and a Location+ rating of 101.
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Diamondbacks vs. Padres
Betting Pick & Prediction
The Diamondbacks offense has underachieved expectations in the early going of the season. For that reason, they could open some eyes now that they are finally in a run of play where they are living up to their potential. They should be able to do some damage against King, who looks to be overvalued after a strong stretch of results.
Pfaadt also looks like a quality starting option and he should continue to trend toward a sub-4.00 ERA this season. The Padres have had the second-best offense against right-handed pitchers though, and all of their underlying offensive numbers are quite strong.
A game total of 7 looks a touch low considering the way both offenses are playing right now. There is value in backing the over at anything better than -125.
Pick: Over 7 (-120) at bet365 | Play to -125
