Diamondbacks vs. Yankees Odds
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-118 | 7.5 -105 / -115 | -1.5 +134 |
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+100 | 7.5 -105 / -115 | +1.5 -162 |
The third and final entry of this interleague series gets underway on Monday with the AL East's New York Yankees hosting the NL West's Arizona Diamondbacks.
These teams split their first two meetings, with New York winning the first matchup 7-1 and Arizona responding with its own 7-1 victory on Sunday.
Will the Diamondbacks secure a massive win on the road amidst a tight playoff race, or can the Yankees play spoiler on their home diamond?
Here's a look at the odds and my Diamondbacks vs. Yankees betting pick and prediction.
Arizona Diamondbacks
The Diamondbacks remain enthralled in a tight playoff race between four NL teams. Their hitting has carried the team this year, ranking in the top half of the league in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, SLG and OPS.
However, perhaps the thing that this lineup excels at most is avoiding strikeouts. Entering this matchup, Arizona ranks fifth in K% when facing right-handed pitching.
Looking at Monday's projected starting lineup, six of the nine hitters possess a K% south of 20% this season. This strikeout avoidance is likely to continue against right-hander Clarke Schmidt, a pitcher whom this lineup owns a mere 11.1 K% and 15.4 Whiff% against through a limited nine-plate-appearance sample size.
New York Yankees
After a strong showing in 2022, Schimdt has regressed mightily this year. Through 31 appearances on the mound, he is 9-9 with a 4.65 ERA and 1.33 WHIP.
His underlying metrics suggest that positive regression is unlikely, ranking in the 46th percentile or lower in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity and Hard-Hit%. Schmidt also ranks in the 38th percentile or lower in K% and Whiff%, and that is the avenue in which we're going to fade the right-hander on Monday.
Currently, you can find his strikeout prop at 5.5 via FanDuel, a total Schmidt has failed to surpass in seven of his past 11 starts. These strikeout woes are likely to continue against an Arizona team that excels in avoiding the punchout.
Diamondbacks vs. Yankees
Betting Pick & Prediction
There isn't much to like about Schmidt in this contest. His surface-level stats are poor, his analytics are just as bad, and he has failed to record more than five strikeouts in seven of his past 11 outings.
Over that span, he owns a 5.21 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. As a final small wrinkle, the forecast is calling for rain, which certainly does not help in the strikeout department assuming the game does not get postponed once again.
