Dodgers vs Angels Odds
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -130 | 8.5 -115 / -105 | -1.5 +118 |
| Angels Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+110 | 8.5 -115 / -105 | +1.5 -142 |
The first edition of the 2023 Freeway Series comes with a little extra excitement, as the Angels are actually fielding a highly-competitive team. In fact, with a strong start to June, they actually own a better record than the Dodgers at 41-33.
At age 35, Clayton Kershaw boasts a 2.95 ERA in 82.1 innings and is currently priced with the second-shortest odds to win the NL Cy Young. He enters this matchup as a -130 favorite over Reid Detmers, who owns a 4.48 ERA in 62.1 innings.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Kershaw continues to put the exclamation point on what has no doubt been a Hall of Fame career. A fifth Cy Young six years removed from his last one would be something truly special, but it remains to be seen whether or not we get to that point.
Over the last 44 innings, he has pitched to a more modest ERA of 3.89. In those 44 innings, he owns a notably high WHIP of 1.40. Those marks are still likely at the lower end of what we will see moving forward, however.
Kershaw's xERA comes in at 3.52, while his xFIP sits at 3.08. Projecting an ERA around 3.50 the rest of the way seems fair, as he has been in the midst of a bad run in terms of BABIP.
Considering the state of the rest of the rotation and the bullpen, the Dodgers need continued excellence from Kershaw more than they have in recent years. Over the last 30 days, the Dodgers own the worst bullpen ERA in baseball. However, their xFIP does suggest positive regression could be on the horizon.
The Dodgers own a wRC+ of 134 over the last 30 days to go along with excellent splits versus lefties as well (114 wRC+, .339 wOBA).
On the injury front, Max Muncy remains sidelined, while Chris Taylor is still listed as day-to-day and could potentially get back in the lineup.
Los Angeles Angels
While the Dodgers offense has been dominant of late, the Angels' lineup has actually been considerably more potent. They own a wRC+ of 150 with a wOBA of .347. On top of that, they still boast the lowest BABIP of any top-five offense in that time frame by a wide margin at .295.
Maybe some other pieces of the lineup will cool off in time, but it's highly encouraging for the Angels that this run has come while Mike Trout fights through one of the worst offensive months of his career. Trout did put up five hits in 11 plate appearances over the weekend in Kansas City, though, and I don't think anybody would be surprised to see that kickstart some better play.
The Angels will also be in their better splits against a lefty in Kershaw. They own a wRC+ of 113 in over 650 at-bats against left-handers this season.
Detmers' 4.38 xERA is on par with what we should expect the rest of the way out. He has been dominant in June with two eight-strikeout outings against Houston and Texas, but his expected marks remained consistent in those two appearances.
Dodgers vs Angels Betting Pick
It still seems a little crazy to say it, but the Angels have outperformed the Dodgers offensively over the last month. They hit left-handed pitching much better than average and will be a tough opponent for Kershaw to conquer.
Kershaw does offer a starting pitching edge over Detmers, but considering where these offenses are, I still believe this line should be closer.
The expected marks of the Dodgers' bullpen suggest their horrific results from the last month have come with some bad luck, but it'll still be an area of concern nonetheless.
Starting off what should be a great series with a bet on the Angels makes sense to me at anything better than +105.
Pick: Angels +114 (Play to +105) |
