Dodgers vs Giants Odds, Pick
| Los Angeles Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line (Spread) |
-218 | 8 -102o / -118u | -1.5 -130 |
| San Francisco Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line (Spread) |
+180 | 8 -102o / -118u | +1.5 +110 |
The San Francisco Giants are beginning to figure things out with two straight series wins, and they'll now put their form to the ultimate test when they host the rival Los Angeles Dodgers on Monday night at Oracle Park.
With two stellar arms battling on Monday — Yoshinobu Yamamoto for the Dodgers and Jordan Hicks for the Giants — is either team capable of gaining any discernible edge or are we headed for a low-scoring affair?
Dodgers vs Giants odds have the Dodgers listed as -218 moneyline favorites, with an over/under of 8 (-102o / -118u). My Dodgers vs Giants prediction targets the total.
Los Angeles Dodgers
The league's top offense, which has been near flawless this season with elite strikeout and walk rates to go along with the best Isolated Power in baseball, has taken a step back over the last week with a measly .182/.275./.359 slash line.
Perhaps some top-heavyness is catching up to L.A., which has several holes in the lineup, or maybe it just ran into some strong pitching against the Marlins and Padres.
Whatever the reason, the Dodgers haven't been themselves at the plate recently, but they've still managed to drop just two games over that span — both coming over the weekend in San Diego.
The pitching staff has carried the freight for the Dodgers, including the impossibly good Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
The rookie right-hander is the proud owner of a 2.79 ERA with a microscopic 4.7% walk rate and a strikeout rate that has fallen slightly but still comes under 30%.
Yamamoto's been improving his ground-ball rate as the season has gone on, but the only negative thus far is that he's yielded a good but of quality contact and owns a 10.6% barrel rate which puts him near the bottom 15% of the league. Perhaps he'll return to Earth if the strikeouts continue to decline. Conversely, the Dodgers' defense ranks third in Outs Above Average, so he should be able to out-perform his expected numbers.
San Francisco Giants
On the other side of this matchup, we have a very different pitcher in Jordan Hicks.
The flamethrower has trimmed his triple-digit sinker a bit to lower his strikeout rate to 20% in exchange for a lower walk rate and continued production in the ground ball department.
Hicks' expected numbers still grade out excellently with a .230 xBA and .354 xSLG, but walks have been a bit of an issue over the last six or so starts. His rocky outing against the Phillies can be chalked up to some uncharacteristic errors from his usually solid infield and a change in catchers after a concussion to Patrick Bailey, and his last start came at Coors Field, where he managed to limit Colorado to three runs over five frames.
With that said, I think Hicks is probably a little closer to the pitcher he was finishing the month of Aril when he owned a 1.89 ERA, and while his control has deserted him on a couple of occasions, those seem to be isolated incidents.
At the plate, the Giants have continued to struggle with a 20th-ranked wRC+ over the last week of play and are now down three of their most significant bats in Jorge Soler, Jung-Hoo Lee and Michael Conforto. This team has been a rather deep one when it comes to producing competent bats, and the combination of Heliot Ramos and Luis Matos should be able to fill the void in the outfield somewhat, but this team still isn't quite a great one when it coms to producing runs.
Dodgers vs. Giants
Betting Pick & Prediction
The Under is a ridiculous 13-5-1 in San Francisco this season, which is both a testament to the Giants' pitching staff and an indictment of their ability to hit the ball at home. Their struggles in these games are well-documented and make a lot of sense due to the Giants' affinity for fly balls, and the outlook is even more bleak without three big bats.
On the flip side, this is a slightly worrying spot for Hicks, given the Dodgers are the most patient team in the league at the plate. Still, I believe that Hicks has had the walks under control on enough occasions this year, and his troublesome line against the Phillies at the start of the month carried with it plenty of legitimate excuses.
The Dodgers aren't hitting the ball all that well at the moment, which should give Hicks an excellent opportunity to bounce back at the pitcher-friendly Oracle Park and deliver us a pitching duel on Monday.
Pick: Under 7.5 (-102)
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