Dodgers vs. Guardians Odds
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-136 | 9 -110 / -110 | -1.5 +114 |
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+116 | 9 -110 / -110 | +1.5 -137 |
The finale of this three-game set between the Los Angeles Dodgers and Cleveland Guardians will feature a pitching matchup loaded with upside.
Gavin Williams, who has done nothing but impress since joining the rotation in late June, will start for the Guardians. However, this Dodgers' lineup will be his toughest task in quite a while.
Ryan Pepiot, who is making just his eighth career start, will oppose Williams. Pepiot, a 26-year-old righty, looked solid in his return to the big club last week against Miami. He'll have another plus matchup in front of him today and will aim to give the Dodgers another quality outing.
So, with two young guns set to toe the slab, what's the best way to bet this matchup? Let's dig in and find out.
Los Angeles Dodgers
If it weren't for the Atlanta Braves, the Dodgers lineup would be the best in the National League. Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman have proven to be the real stars in Hollywood. They consistently spark the Dodgers order, which has led to elite production. The Dodgers rank in the top three in wRC+, wOBA and runs scored. It'll certainly be a tall order for Gavin Williams, who may have issues getting through this lineup twice.
Williams has looked phenomenal in his short big-league tenure. He's been challenged against some of the most formidable lineups in the league and, for the most part, has held firm. However, his xERA is a full run higher than his actual ERA.
Williams has excellent stuff, which allows him to generate swings and misses, but his hard-hit rate is average, and his walk rate is concerning. The Dodgers are second in the majors when it comes to drawing walks.
If Williams allows free passes, or even falls behind in the count frequently, LA will make him pay.
Cleveland Guardians
Conversely, Cleveland has struggled offensively.
The Guardians rank last in average exit velocity, hard-hit rate and barrel rate. Yes, they have the second-highest xBA in the majors, but that stems from them not striking out.
We haven't seen enough from Pepiot to see how he's trending, but the metrics from his first outing were impressive. Pepiot dominated with his fastball, which he threw nearly 51% of the time. He also had a 42.9% whiff rate.
However, what's most telling is that Pepiot holds a .194 xBA in the majors. That is generated from a very small sample size, so the loud contact is coming, but not today.
Dodgers vs. Guardians
Betting Pick & Prediction
When we don't have much to go off from a pitching standpoint, we must look at the lineups. From that perspective, the mismatch is clear as day. The Dodgers have a much better lineup and have the talent, experience and approach to succeed against Willilams.
Back the Dodgers, as we are getting a nice discount with Pepiot on the mound.
