San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction, Pick | MLB Seoul Series Odds
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -120 | 8.5 -125o / +105u | -220 |
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 +100 | 8.5 -125o / +105u | +180 |
Here's everything you need to know about the Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres on Wednesday, March 20, including odds and a prediction for the MLB Seoul Series 2024.
The MLB season begins Wednesday morning in Seoul, South Korea when the Dodgers and Padres meet for the first of two games. The pitching matchup will feature the Dodgers' Tyler Glasnow against the Padres' Yu Darvish.
Continue reading for my betting pick and preview for Dodgers vs. Padres on Wednesday, March 20.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Among starters who tossed at least 100 innings last season, Tyler Glasnow ranked eighth with a 109 Pitching+ rating, while Yu Darvish (106) finished 15th.
All projection systems see a significant difference between Darvish (projected FIP 4.0-4.4) and Glasnow (projected range 3.43 to 3.69) for 2024, but the gap is even more pronounced if you focus on their differential in stuff. Darvish stays in the 4.1 range in terms of an ERA projection, but Glasnow falls into the low threes — ranking among the elite pitchers in baseball on a per-inning basis.
As a result, their gap in true talent is closer to their 2023 xFIP differential — over an entire run — than their xERA differential — closer to a quarter run — from last season.
Glasnow has two dominant offerings — a blazing fastball (128 Stuff+) and a devastating curveball (152 Stuff+) — but he threw his slider (94 Stuff+) more than one-third of the time last season (34.8%) and produced subpar results (.347 xwOBA). I'd expect Glasnow to dial back that slider usage in favor of — but in concert with — the Dodgers' signature two-seamer, which Glasnow has been working on this spring.
Darvish is 37 years old, coming off an elbow injury that ended his season prematurely after he posted his worst indicators (17.1% K-%%, 21.1% career; 4.04 xFIP vs. 3.41 career) since 2018. He struggled with lefties last season (4.00 xFIP) and typically has splits about a quarter of a run worse against lefties than righties — problematic against this lefty-heavy Dodgers lineup.
Aside from Freddie Freeman (.998 OPS), Darvish has solid numbers against these Dodgers hitters (otherwise allowed a .173 average, with a 22.2% K-BB%). His matchup against Shohei Ohtani will be particularly intriguing because the Samurai Japan teammates have never faced one another in a regular-season MLB game.
The Dodgers seemingly have six of the best nine and seven of the best 10 hitters in this contest, but they are also the superior club both defensively and on the base paths.
Los Angeles finished third, with 57 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) last season, compared to 40 for the fifth-place Padres. The two clubs finished ninth and 10th, respectively, in baserunning value.
Will Smith is an elite pitch-framer (fourth in Adjusted Earned Runs), and the Dodgers have a trio of above-average outfield defenders, but the infield defense is a work in progress.
Freeman finished second-to-last among first basemen in 2023 (-9 DRS), and Max Muncy (-3) is a negative defender at third base. Mookie Betts (+6 at second base, +0 at shortstop, +3 in right field) will try to play a scratch shortstop, pushing Gavin Lux — who is returning from a gruesome knee injury — to second base.
San Diego Padres
Fernando Tatis Jr. (+27 DRS) ranked among the top defenders in baseball last season (Daulton Varsho, +29), but his bat regressed (113 wRC+; 158 in 2021, 151 in both 2019 and 2020).
Manny Machado is still recovering from right elbow surgery, which has relegated the Padres' second-best defender to the DH role and forced Graham Pauley — who has played 20 games at Double-A — into the Opening Day lineup.
Pauley (projected wRC+ range of 92-103 in 2024) and 20-year-old Jackson Merrill (projected wRC+ range of 87-90) — who played 46 games at Double-A — will make their major league debuts in the Seoul Series.
San Diego also has a pair of foreign relievers — NPB veteran Yuki Matsui and KBO veteran Woo-Suk Go — who should make their major league debuts in Seoul.
Still, the Dodgers project to have the superior bullpen by around a half-run per game in terms of a team ERA projection:
As a result, the Dodgers have the Padres covered in all areas of this matchup. It's difficult to find any advantage for San Diego.
The park should also be advantageous for the Dodgers. GoCheok Sky Dome plays about four to six percent above the major league average run-scoring environment by permitting more doubles and homers and limiting singles, likely due to its shallow outfield configuration (325 ft. to the corners and 400 to center field), which meets the minimum requirement for a modern MLB ballpark.
The Dodgers (.455 team SLG, 2nd) hit 303 doubles (fifth most in baseball) and 249 home runs (second most) last season and arguably have more power with Ohtani and Teoscar Hernandez in the mix for 2024. Conversely, the Padres (.413 team SLG, 15th) finished 16th in doubles (273), 13th in homers (205) and traded away Juan Soto.
Dodgers vs. Padres
Betting Pick & Prediction
I projected the Dodgers as -201 favorites (66.8% implied) for the first five innings (F5) of this matchup and as -179 favorites (64.1%) for the full game. I set the F5 total at 4.57 runs and the full game total at 8.89.
As a result, I see value in the Dodgers' F5 moneyline and would back Glasnow and the Dodgers in the first half up to -192 (65.8% implied) at a one percent edge compared to my projected line. However, I don't see value in the full-game moneyline or the total in either half.
My projected differential in talent between Glasnow and Darvish is greater than my expected delta between these two bullpens.
