Major League Baseball is back! The 2024 season kicks off with a special series in Seoul, South Korea between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the San Diego Padres. What's even better than games happening is player prop markets being posted.
Player props are one of the best ways to get in on the action, as there is daily value all over the board. For this opening matchup, I've done the work for you and will now present my top three player props for the first game of the MLB Seoul Series between the San Diego Padres and Los Angeles Dodgers.
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Padres vs Dodgers Player Props
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -120 | 8.5 -125o / +105u | -220 |
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 +100 | 8.5 -125o / +105u | +180 |
Yu Darvish
Over 4.5 Hits Allowed (-120)
Yu Darvish is back atop the Padres' rotation. However, the 37-year-old has a lot to prove as he comes off one of the roughest seasons of his big league career. Darvish held a 4.56 ERA and posted a BABIP of .319, both of which were his highest marks since 2018.
On top of father time catching up to him, he must face one of the most daunting lineups we've seen in recent history. Just the top of the order in Mookie Betts, Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman is enough to strike fear in any pitcher.
While Darvish has looked all right this spring, his outlook for this first start of the season is not promising. We are going to fade him by using his increased contact rates against him.
Darvish allowed more than four hits in 67 percent of his starts last season. That hit rate equates to the implied odds of -203, which means that there is a good chance he will go over this total again.
Pick: Yu Darvish Over 4.5 Hits Allowed (-120 at bet365)
Ha-Seong Kim
Over 0.5 Stolen Bases (+350)
We go from fading one Padre to backing another, as this series is a homecoming for Bucheon-si's own Ha-Seong Kim. Kim took a big step forward in 2023, and we really saw him make an impact on the base paths as he racked up 38 stolen bases.
While Kim is priced fairly to go over this number based on his hit rate in 2023, his matchup is what gives us the edge on this price. What's great is that we don't have to worry about how Kim reaches base, and Tyler Glasnow is likely to put him on via a base on balls.
Once he gets on, we should see Kim get an immediate green light against Glasnow. Glasnow has never held runners on well and it was no different in 2023. Base stealers had a 95 percent success rate against him.
So, at this price with Glasnow on the mound, Kim's over has definite value on it.
Pick: Ha-Seong Kim Over 0.5 Stolen Bases (+350 at bet365)
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Jason Heyward
Under 0.5 Hits (+130)
Baseball is a game of failure, and there is one guy with value on him to have no success at the plate in this matchup. That man is Jason Heyward.
Heyward had a nice bounce-back campaign in 2023, but the numbers suggest that the best days are behind the 34-year-old outfielder. Despite hitting .269, Heyward ranked in the 20th percentile in average exit velocity and the 28th percentile in hard-hit rate.
Those contact rates equate to him being about 14 points more successful at the dish in 2023 than he should have been. As for this matchup, he'll get the majority of his at-bats against Yu Darvish, who has given him fits over his career.
Heyward is just 1-for-13 against Darvish, and while he's put the ball in play in 10 of those at-bats, his quality of contact does not project positive regression. Against Darvish, he holds an average exit velocity of 87 mph and an average launch angle of 28.9 degrees, which means plenty of soft flyouts.
Lastly, betting Heyward to go hitless at plus money is a great price. He went hitless in 55 percent of games last season, which works out to implied odds of -122.
Pick: Jason Heyward Under 0.5 Hits (+130 at BetRivers)
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