One of the most popular promotions in the sports betting community is back again this week: Dinger Tuesday from FanDuel.
The promotion allows each user to bet $25 on one player in every MLB game played that day to hit a home run. Regardless of whether the player you bet on homers, you receive $5 in free bets back for each home run hit in the game, with a max return of $25 for the game.with
Some users have been limited by FanDuel this season and are only allowed to receive a maximum $50 back in free bets — essentially 10 free homers back for the day in free bets. Last season, there were no limits on the promotion for any players.
Given the average number of home runs in an MLB game in 2022 was 2.14, you will receive an average of $10.07 in free bets back for each $25 home run bet you make, without accounting for the loss in expected value on the vig of the home run yes prop.
If you’re not limited at all, you should play as many games as you’re comfortable with because the promo is +EV for most of the board.
If you are limited to the max return of $50, an average of five games will return your $50 maximum free bets.
Here are my five favorite Dinger Tuesday picks for this week.
Taijuan Walker has seen a solid decline in his stuff this season for the Phillies. He's projected to allow 1.4 HR/9 for the rest of the season and has seen a drop in his swinging strike rate, chase rate and zone whiff rate.
The Giants can load up the early lefties in the order to go after him, when he's been especially vulnerable in the first innings of games in the last month.
Giants lefty Kyle Harrison also had major command issues in the minor leagues, which makes him quite vulnerable to surrendering the long ball despite his plus stuff. The conditions and pitching matchup are solid for offense in this game.
LaMonte Wade Jr. doesn't play every day for the Giants, but when he does play, he's sporting the best barrel rate of his career and combining it with the best max exit velocity and best walk rate.
It's very favorable conditions for offense in Philadelphia on Tuesday night and Wade should get three looks at right-handed arms in this game.
Adam Wainwright has only thrown 72 innings and his entire underlying profile has fallen off a cliff.
Wainwright is unable to miss bats anymore, evidenced by his 4.9% swinging strike rate, and 93.2% zone contact rate. His strikeout rate has plummeted and he's allowing more HR/9 that at any point in his career.
Wainwright is no longer an MLB-caliber starter, and while Bryan Reynolds doesn't have the most exciting profile, he's still the best hitter in the Pirates lineup.
Jack Suwinski has the most raw power, but his swing and miss issues and much cheaper price don't show much value on him in this matchup.
Reynolds has quietly cut his strikeout rate a couple points to 20%, and also improved his barrel rate to a career high in 2023.
PNC Park is not at all friendly for right-handed hitters to homer — it's 30th in park factors for HRs among righties. But Reynolds will bat from the left for most of this game and the park is neutral for lefties to homer in.
Reynolds is on a 25-30 homer full season pace, which makes it all the more surprising to see him at +600 against Wainwright.
Tylor Megill vs. Bryce Elder is one of the worst matchups on the board for pitching on Tuesday. Given the quality of both offenses and the ballpark in Atlanta being homer friendly, it should come as no surprise that the total is set at 10.5.
Francisco Alvarez has been slumping of late, but there's no doubting his raw power abilities and he's already displayed elite in-game power for the Mets this year too. Alvarez has a +630 price at FanDuel and is lower than +500 at every other book.
He has a .234 ISO which is well above league average power, and combined it with plus raw power and a 12.1% barrel rate.
The Braves have a ton of intriguing options as usual against Megill, but Alvarez is the best value on the board at +630. Alvarez has 21 homers in 333 plate appearances as a rookie.
He's likely to struggle to hit for average or get on base much, but if he connects with one, it won't take much to take Elder deep.
Editor's Note: Yordan Alvarez was scratched from the lineup, and Kyle Tucker +400 is the replacement pick from the author.
It's rare that we get to buy Yordan Alvarez at a discount, but that looks like the case this Tuesday given his price when compared to Kyle Tucker and other sports books.
Tanner Houck has a noticeable split issue in his career — with a .726 OPS allowed against southpaws compared to .546 against right-handed batters. The split has become even more pronounced in 2023, where Houck has allowed eight homers in 145 plate appearances to lefties.
There's nothing in his underlying statistical profile to suggest Alvarez isn't still one of the game's best home run hitters on a per plate appearance basis. He hasn't homered much recently, but Alvarez has maintained an elite 17% barrel rate and 116 mph max exit velocities in 2023.
He still projects for 40+ home run full season power and that's why he should be priced considerably cheaper than Tucker. He's hit just two homers in the month and has a .602 OPS since his last homer on Aug. 6, but the track record and underlying numbers suggest nothing is wrong. Alvarez is +310 or lower at every other major legal sportsbook.
I'll buy low on Alvarez at +350 or better to homer on Tuesday night.
It's been an underwhelming first season of Carlos Correa's new contract in Minnesota and he's seen general decline across the board in most of his underlying profile.
His max EV is down and his ground ball rate is up, but Correa has shown signs of hitting the ball hard more often and tapping back into the power that he clearly still has. His barrel rate is right in line with his career average, and THE BAT X projections still expect him to post a 131 wRC+ for the rest of the season.
Correa's xwOBA is rising considerably in the last 50 plate appearances, yet the price on him to homer against a southpaw starter remains quite favorable at +540.
Wade Miley has always been better than league average at home run suppression throughout his career, but that is less true this season as his ground ball rate has decreased considerably.
Miley kept his HR/9 below 1.00 in 2020, 2021 and 2022 despite pitching two of those seasons in Cincinnati. This year, Miley has allowed the highest HR/9 since the juiced ball of 2019.
Milwaukee is a sneaky hitters park and Correa has a .837 OPS against lefties in 2023, which is 160 points than his numbers against righties.
