Giants vs. Mets Odds
| Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+115 | 9 -110 / -110 | +1.5 -175 |
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-135 | 9 -110 / -110 | -1.5 +145 |
The Mets have a chance to begin July with consecutive victories after a poor month of June nearly put them out of the National League wild-card race. The Mets haven't won a series since June 1, when they swept the Phillies, and tonight's big Sunday Night Baseball matchup features two starting pitchers who have just reclaimed their roles in the rotation due to injuries and poor performance from other starters.
Ross Stripling has attempted to fix an issue with his release point with the Giants coaching staff, while David Peterson was recalled from Triple-A Syracuse despite not pitching well with the minor league affiliate.
The market has moved solidly toward the Mets overnight since the opening line. New York opened around -110 at most shops, but the Mets have been bet up to around -130. The weather forecast is a major question mark too, with thunderstorms expected in the region between 5-8 p.m. ET.
Regardless of the rain, there's also a forecasted 9-10 mph wind straight out to centerfield, which is a solid boost to the run environment in what is normally a pitcher-friendly ballpark at Citi Field.
Continue reading for my pick and prediction for the series finale of Giants vs. Mets on Sunday Night Baseball.
San Francisco Giants
The Giants have faced right-handed starters all week long in Toronto and New York, so it's unclear exactly how Gabe Kapler plans to matchup against a southpaw starter on Sunday night given his depleted roster. June 22 was the last time the Giants saw a lefty starter — Padres LHP Blake Snell. He'll platoon out Joc Pederson and LaMonte Wade Jr. from the lineup, two of the more difficult batters to strikeout in the Giants lineup when facing a righty.
Kapler can put as many as nine right-handed bats in the lineup if he so chooses, and I'd imagine he'll end up with nine in the Sunday finale unless Michael Conforto is able to overcome the hamstring injury he's been dealing with in time. Conforto didn't play Friday night or Saturday afternoon.
Peterson isn't a lefty who has a particularly strong platoon split — his career numbers are split neutral and he actually has better K/BB peripherals this season against righty bats than lefty.
The lineup has relied on a lot of young bats to this point in the season — Casey Schmitt, Luis Matos and Patrick Bailey — and all three are expected to start on Sunday. Not having Wade or Pederson in the lineup is a major reason they've struck out much more against lefties this season. The Giants have the third-highest strikeout rate against southpaws.
New York Mets
The home run ball has been David Peterson's biggest problem in 2023, and the small sample volatility of that statistic likely suggests that positive regression is looming for him. Peterson has thrown 267 big-league innings and never had a home run issue until this season.
The rest-of-season projections from even the worst system for him (The BAT) project him to allow 1.16 HR/9 for the rest of the year. To date, Peterson has allowed 1.60 HR/9 and 24% of his fly balls have been hit out of the ballpark. That's more than double the league average.
Even with the favorable hitting conditions on Sunday night, Peterson will face a free-swinging lineup that will chase his breaking balls out of the zone and doesn't have a ton of plate discipline against lefties.
The loss of Wade and Pederson from the lineup means he won't have to face the two hitters with the best plate discipline and the highest walk rates on the roster. Peterson can struggle with command at times, but his underlying stuff remains good and he's still managed 10.0 K/9 in 45 MLB innings despite a 7.00 ERA.
Peterson has an 11.9% swinging strike rate this year, which is nearly a full point better than the league average. If you factor in that Peterson faces a friendly strikeout lineup in a friendly strikeout park (Citi Field is 5% better than league average for Ks), you can get his raw projected K rate a tick or two above 25%. At a conservative 25% estimate, he'd need to face just 22 hitters to reach his projected strikeout total of 5.5 on Sunday night.
Giants vs. Mets Betting Pick
It's hard to not trust the Giants given how much their talent consistently over performs the underlying projections. But San Francisco's lineup is without Mike Yastrzemski, Conforto, Pederson and Wade tonight. There is a reason why the Giants have just a 94 wRC+ against southpaws compared to a 106 wRC+ against righties — way more discipline, fewer strikeouts and the better end of the platoon.
Like Peterson, Stripling has also been hit hard for way more homers than you'd expect thus far. His HR/FB rate is up at 31%, but that's come in part because of a real lack of command. When Stripling is commanding the ball well, he's often undervalued by the market because of his low K rates.
But until he shows any consistency of that command, I struggle to price him above a replacement level starter. Peterson has much better stuff and thus can more easily navigate a lineup on a given night because of it.
The starting pitchers are roughly about even in terms of quality. But the Mets have the lineup edge and are at home, so I'd bet them at -125 or better. I'm also betting the Peterson strikeout prop, which did take some money overnight toward the over but still has some value in my view.
Pick: Mets ML (-125 or better) |
Pick: David Peterson Over 5.5 Ks (+100 or better) |
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