Giants vs Mets Odds, Picks & Predictions (5/25)
| San Francisco Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+1.5 -175 | 8 -112o / -108u | +124 |
| New York Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-1.5 +145 | 8 -112o / -108u | -148 |
Giants vs Mets odds have the Mets as -148 moneyline favorites with an over/under of 8 (-112o /-108u) for the Saturday afternoon game at Citi Field.
A pair of right-handers are set to square off as Jordan Hicks is slated to take the mound for San Francisco while New York hands the ball to Luis Severino.
For my Giants vs Mets pick and prediction, I will be looking at the total.
San Francisco Giants
Hicks has been outstanding for San Francisco thus far this season, posting a 4-1 record with a 2.38 ERA and 1.11 WHIP through his first 10 starts. His underlying metrics suggest regression shouldn't be too much of a concern, given the right-hander ranks in the top half of the league in xERA, xBA and barrel rate.
That success could continue against New York, a team he boasts a 3.38 ERA against through nine career meetings. And following Hicks is one of the league's best bullpens, which ranks sixth in FIP and second in xFIP.
However, run support for this pitching staff may be difficult to come by. Entering this matchup, the Giants rank in the bottom half of the league in runs scored per game, SLG, home runs and stolen bases.
Those struggles at the dish are likely to continue against Severino, a pitcher whom this current San Francisco lineup possesses a mere .135 BA, .135 SLG and .163 wOBA against through 40 career plate appearances.
New York Mets
Like Hicks, Severino has gotten off to a strong start in 2024. Through nine starts, the right-hander owns a 3.48 ERA and 1.22 WHIP.
Also like Hicks, Severino's analytics are strong, as he ranks in the top half of the league in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate. Severino did undergo a tough outing his last time out, but I believe he can rebound — and if he doesn't, I still trust New York's bullpen to close it out.
This season, the Mets' relief pitching ranks in the top eight in ERA, FIP and xFIP. However, similar to San Francisco, this pitching staff is not guaranteed run support.
This season, New York ranks in the bottom half of the league in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS and home runs.
Giants vs. Mets
Betting Pick & Prediction
The Mets' lineup may particularly struggle in this matchup against Hicks, a pitcher whom they possess a meager .233 BA, .267 SLG and .287 wOBA against through 35 career plate appearances. Almost everything points to the Under in this matchup, which is why it is listed at a short 7.5.
I still project this game to go under that number. Both starting pitchers are excellent, both relief staffs can finish the game off and both lineups have struggled. Both lineups have also historically struggled against tonight's opposing pitcher. Add all of those variables together and we should see a low-scoring affair.
Pick: Under 7.5 (-110 at FanDuel | Play to -115)
