Giants vs. Padres Odds, Pick
| Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+125 | 8 +100/-112 | +1.5 -162 |
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-149 | 8 +100/-112 | -1.5 +134 |
Here's everything you need to know about Giants vs Padres on Friday, March 29 — including odds and a prediction.
Giants vs Padres odds have San Diego as a -150 favorite on the moneyline while the over/under is set at 7.5. San Francisco hands the ball to left-hander Kyle Harrison, and I am looking at his prop market for my Giants vs Padres pick for Friday evening.
Let's dive into why I am fading Harrison as I make a Giants vs Padres pick.
San Francisco Giants
Harrison kicked off his MLB career last season and faced some challenges as he went 1-1 with a 4.15 ERA through seven starts. However, his analytics were even worse.
While he did not officially qualify, Harrison would have ranked among the bottom half of all pitchers in xERA, average exit velocity and barrel%. It remains to be seen whether the natural improvements of a 22-year-old pitcher will offset these poor metrics, but the one thing we did see last year is that Harrison is not a strikeout-heavy pitcher.
Going back to his metrics, he also would have ranked in the bottom 40th percentile in both chase% and whiff%. Additionally, we could see a quick outing from the right-hander if this start goes anything like his lone start against San Diego last year.
In that game, Harrison surrendered four homers while allowing six runs on six hits in under six innings of work.
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San Diego Padres
The Padres teed-off on Harrison the last time around, and this offense is certainly capable of doing so once again. Last season, San Diego ranked in the top half of the league in SLG, OPS and wOBA.
This group was particularly good at avoiding the punchout, ranking seventh in K%. That success has carried over into this season, ranking fourth in K% through a small three-game sample size at a mere 17.2%.
The core of this group that faced Harrison last year are all still here, and through those 14 plate appearances, they carried a miniscule 14.3 K%. Across that same sample size, they posted a dominating .343 xBA, .652 xSLG and .457 xwOBA.
Looking at Friday's projected starting lineup, we should expect more of the same as only two of San Diego's nine batters possess a K% north of 23% through the first three games of 2024.
Giants vs. Padres
Betting Pick & Prediction
The Padres have gotten off to a 2-1 start this year as the offense looks like it could be a real potential problem for opposing pitchers. Again, it is a small sample size, but San Diego ranks in the top six of the league in all of the following categories through its first three games: runs scored per game, hits per game, BA and OBP.
Based on last season's production, I am not too worried about the deviation from those rankings among the small sample size to start this campaign. Furthermore, there are a lot of question marks about Harrison.
Yes, he is only 22-years-old and could rapidly improve, but his surface-level stats last year were not great and his underlying metrics were even worse. The Padres torched him last season, and if they chase him off early on Friday, then we could cash on fading his strikeout prop at plus-money.
Pick: Kyle Harrison Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+100 | Play to -105)
