Guardians vs Rangers Odds
| Cleveland Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line (Spread) |
-110 | 9 -105o / -115u | -1.5 +150 |
| Texas Rangers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line (Spread) |
-110 | 9 -105o / -115u | +1.5 -185 |
We're treated to a matchup of two of the American League's best this season as the Cleveland Guardians take on the Texas Rangers on Monday night at Globe Life Field.
The Guardians (25-16) currently have a half-game lead in the AL Central, while the Rangers (22-10) are just a half-game back in the AL West. This series can go a long way toward determining the AL playoff picture at the end of the year.
While these teams have been decent offensively this season, I believe the underlying numbers could signal a step back for these two squads. Let's dive into my Guardians vs Rangers prediction for Monday night.
Cleveland Guardians
Tanner Bibee gets the nod for Cleveland tonight as he will make his ninth start of the season. Bibbee has a 4.91 ERA and 4.95 xERA across 40 1/3 innings this year, amassing 44 strikeouts.
Among 85 pitchers with 40 or more innings, Bibee ranks 28th in Stuff+ with a 101. He's also 22nd in Location+, which puts him at an impressive eighth-place ranking in Pitching+. His strikeout, whiff, and walk rates are above average for the second consecutive season.
Where Bibee has taken a step back this year is his batted ball profile, where he ranks in the 12th percentile among qualified pitchers in hard-hit rate allowed, 35th percentile in average exit velocity allowed, and 12th percentile in barrel rate allowed. He ranked above average in all three categories last season.
We'll see whether his poor batted-ball profile is sticky or simply a small sample-size issue. With his Stuff and Location metrics looking good, I'm partial to thinking his contact numbers will normalize soon.
This season, Cleveland's offense has been largely average. The Guardians rank 16th in wRC+ and 15th in wOBA. They don’t strike out or walk much, so most at-bats result in a ball being put in play.
They rank 25th among MLB lineups in average exit velocity and barrel rate this year, ranking dead last in hard-hit rate. Their poor contact numbers have resulted in poor expected indicators, where the Guardians rank last in expected wOBACON and bottom-three in expected wOBA and expected slugging.
Texas Rangers
The defending World Series Champions are playing well early, although the Rangers hit a speed bump last week, getting swept by the lowly Rockies.
Michael Lorenzen gets the start for Texas on Monday. The 32-year-old veteran has made five starts this year, posting a 4.66 ERA, 5.15 expected ERA and 5.45 FIP across 29 innings. He's a reliable arm, albeit a back-of-the-rotation option.
The Rangers lineup ranks 12th in wRC+ and 10th in wOBA while striking out at the eighth-lowest rate. However, they rank among the bottom-10 teams in hard-hit rate, barrel rate and average exit velocity, so they haven't been making much quality contact.
Guardians vs. Rangers
Betting Pick & Prediction
Neither offense has been overly impressive this year as their Statcast metrics leave much to be desired.
While it's been an average park over the past few seasons, Globe Life Field has been among the worst hitter's parks in the league this season, with a park factor of just 92.
Texas has the edge in the lineup, but I think Bibee is better than Lorenzen, making this a close matchup, reflected in the Guardians vs Rangers odds.
Instead of picking a side, I'll bet the Under 9 (-112) available at DraftKings.
Neither team is hitting the ball hard, and both pitchers are good enough to take advantage, so I see this playing out as a lower-scoring matchup.
Pick: Under 9 (-112)
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