Guardians vs. Red Sox Odds
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -185 | 9.5 -102o / -118u | +105 |
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +154 | 9.5 -102o / -118u | -125 |
Cleveland fought back in a thriller Sunday to beat the Yankees 8-7 in extra innings, avoid the sweep and remain atop the AL Central standings. Despite dropping two games to New York, the Guardians are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
Boston is expected to finish in last place in the AL East, but it has held its own and sits two games above .500. The schedule has helped the Red Sox, with nine games against the Athletics and Angels.
Cleveland will head up to Fenway Park on Monday to begin a four-game set in what is always one of the best environments of the regular season. Monday is Patriots' Day, which has become one of the most celebrated holidays in the city of Boston. Since 1897, the Boston Marathon has taken place on Patriots’ Day. The Red Sox have played a home game at Fenway Park on Patriots’ Day every year since 1979 in a special morning first pitch.
Let's take a look at this early matchup Monday before offering a Guardians vs. Red Sox pick.
Cleveland Guardians
Xzavion Curry is coming off a strong rookie season in which he worked mostly out of the bullpen. The 25-year-old posted a 4.07 ERA in 41 games, with just nine being starts. But with the injury to Shane Bieber, Curry will be thrust into the starting role Monday.
Curry will be making his season debut after dealing with a bad viral illness for the past month. He made two rehab starts for Triple-A Columbus, allowing just one run over seven innings.
The problem for Curry is that he was much more effective as a reliever. He posted a 5.24 ERA as a starting pitcher last season. He got away with a lot when working in shorter stints as a reliever. His xERA was nearly a full run higher when starting and he ranked in the bottom 10% of the league in strikeout rate, hard-hit rate and average exit velocity. Curry allowed an average exit velocity of 91.7 mph, one of the worst in the entire league.
Cleveland’s offense doesn’t have the same high profile names that some teams do, but it is off to a great start, ranking top 10 in the league in wRC+. Surprisingly, MVP candidate José Ramírez is off to a slow start, with an OPS of just .692.
Steven Kwan, Josh Naylor and Andrés Giménez all have an OPS over .800 and are hitting at least .310 on the season. They have led the way for the Guardians' offense.
Boston Red Sox
Boston will hope Kutter Crawford continues his torrid start to the season. Through three starts, Crawford has allowed just one earned run, racking up 18 strikeouts in 15 2/3 innings.
Crawford added a sweeper to his arsenal, and it has quickly become his most used and most effective pitch. The addition of the sweeper has helped Crawford raise his strikeout rate to 28.1% and dropped his hard-hit rate and average exit velocity.
We saw Crawford make a big jump last season in his first full season and he has continued to show the upside. His command has been a bit shaky, but he has only allowed seven hits all season.
For the casual baseball fan, the Red Sox lineup is basically Rafael Devers and a bunch of guys you’ve probably never heard of. The bad news is that Devers is hitting just .184 with two home runs. He has also missed the last four games with a shoulder injury.
Former Cardinal Tyler O’Neill has clubbed seven home runs, the most in the league. Outfielder Jarren Duran is off to a great start as well, but after that, the Red Sox bats are lacking.
Guardians vs. Red Sox
Betting Pick & Prediction
Fenway Park has always been a hitter-friendly ballpark, and for the last three years, it has ranked second in park factor, only behind Coors Field. That is where I love backing a guy like Crawford. The park doesn’t matter as much when guys are not hitting the ball, and when they do, it’s a soft ground ball.
Crawford is a pitcher I’m looking to back as much as possible before he fully ascends into the ace discussion. His xERA was 3.25 last season and he has demonstrated those expected metrics early this season. His fastball was terrific last season, but the addition of his sweeper has dropped his hard-hit rate below 30%. He has allowed just one barrel all season and is yet to allow an extra-base hit.
Boston’s bullpen has performed well so far this season, but I’m still unsure if I fully trust them. Cleveland is the better team and its lineup is deeper and more reliable. However, I am betting on Crawford’s continued ascension.
Back Boston on the first five innings to get out to an early lead Monday morning, as the Red Sox celebrate Patriots’ Day at Fenway Park.
Pick: Red Sox First Five -132 (Play to -135)
