Guardians vs. Royals Odds, Pick
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-115 | 8.5 -125 / +105 | -1.5 +142 |
| Royals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-105 | 8.5 -125 / +105 | +1.5 -170 |
The Kansas City Royals escaped Wednesday afternoon against the Miami Marlins thanks to a five-run eighth inning to preserve the victory. They're 3-7 in their last ten games, so that was a much-needed victory.
The Cleveland Guardians head to Kansas City after an impressive series victory against the Orioles. Despite the loss on Wednesday, they head into this series with a nine-game lead in the AL-Central.
It will be Ben Lively on the mound for the Guardians and veteran right-hander Michael Wacha for the Royals. Most books have the Guardians as slight favorites and the over/under set at 8.5.
Cleveland Guardians
Terry Francona and the Guardians continue to shock the baseball world. They now possess the second-best record in the American League.
Many expected the Guardians to be in the playoff mix, but they have greatly exceeded those expectations.
Lively has had a terrific year thus far, sporting a 3.03 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. His xERA is around 3.74, so it's fair to point out that he's been on the good side of fortune.
Lively is never going to blow you away with his velocity. He solely relies on his movement and limiting hard contact.
Lively has been roughed up a bit against the Royals in the past. The current team hitters are 7-for-17 lifetime against him — which, to be fair, is a small sample size.
Regardless, there is a bit of regression looming for Lively, and I would not be surprised to see the Royals offense find success in the early going. Things won't be easy since the offense is going against Michael Wacha.
Wacha is having a mediocre season, but he has dominated Guardians' hitters in the past. They are 4-for-30 lifetime against him.
Kansas City Royals
Wacha's success against the Guardians is nothing to snuff at. His last start against them was last season when he was a member of the San Diego Padres.
Wacha picked up the victory, hurling 6 2/3 innings with no runs on four hits. He has a 4.07 ERA, but his xERA is 3.60.
There is some good fortune on the way for Wacha, which is crucial for the Royals to get off to a good start in the series. I like the matchup for him a lot, and it is only a matter of time before these Guardians' hitters return to earth.
The key to a Royals victory tonight will be to score early and hold on to the lead. The Guardians have the best Bullpen ERA in MLB, sporting a ridiculous 2.35.
I like the Royals' offense to carry some momentum from their late-inning comeback yesterday into tonight's game. It is a far more crucial four-game series to them than the Guardians, as they could be buried in the standings if they scuffle.
Guardians vs. Royals
Betting Pick & Prediction
I am targeting the Royals' ML in the first half.
A lot of public money seems to be coming in on the Guardians, as the Royals' early-season success has lost some of its shine after a brutal month of baseball.
I will happily fade the public here, and quite frankly, the Guardians' offense can not sustain their current success. Steven Kwan has been sensational but has a 2% barrel rate and an xSLG well below his current percentage.
I won't dive into each hitter, but that is one example of their overperformance. I don't want to mess around by taking the Royals full-game ML, as the Guardians' bullpen can keep them in the game late.
