Guardians vs Royals Thursday Odds & Prediction (6/6)
| Cleveland Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-162 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | -1.5 +130 |
| Kansas City Royals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
+136 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | +1.5 -155 |
Tanner Bibee will throw Thursday in the matinee for the Cleveland Guardians against the Kansas City Royals. Effective over his two years at the Major League level, he holds above-average walk and strikeout numbers and has remained consistent after a strong 2023 season.
Opposing Bibee and the Guardians will be Brady Singer. The right-hander has made some great starts this season, but hard contact has always been an issue for him. Singer does keep the ball on the ground, though. Since Cleveland’s lineup is top-heavy, he could manage to be competitive.
Find my MLB betting preview for the Guardians vs Royals series finale on Thursday below, which includes my pick and prediction on the over/under.
Cleveland Guardians
Bibee is a superior pitcher to Singer, when it comes to peripherals.
The Cal State Fullerton product's ERA and xERA are almost level (3.74 vs. 3.87). His Hard-Hit Rate (35.6%) is above average, though his Average Exit Velocity is on the higher end at 89 mph.
Bibee does not keep the ball on the ground all of the time, but his 6.7% walk rate and 25.6% strikeout rate somewhat counters that. He has an elite slider, which ranks in the 96th percentile in Run value.
As I mentioned in the intro, the Guardians have a top-heavy lineup. They have a 103 wRC+ against lefties in the last month, with a 8.3% walk rate and 18.7% strikeout rate. They have six batters above a .335 xwOBA, but Singer's ground-ball rate could be a tough matchup for Cleveland
The bottom of the lineup has struggled, so Singer could do just enough to keep Cleveland from scoring.
Cleveland’s relief staff is far superior to its counterpart in this matchup. The Guardians bullpen has a collective 3.33 xFIP with a 6.5% walk rate and strikeout rate over 25% since May 6.
Their xFIP ranks third in MLB, so they have plenty of options to go to if/when Bibee exits. But since Bibee does not walk many hitters, and the Royals do not walk much as a unit, there's potential he could pitch deep.
Kansas City Royals
One thing Singer is good at is limited fly balls. His ground-ball rate ranks in the 84th percentile, so Cleveland may have some trouble elevating their hits. Singer does have a 2.63 ERA against an xERA over 4.00, but since Cleveland does not hit the ball particularly hard, this should not be as much of a concern.
Regression will be in the cards with a Barrel Rate over 14%, but it does not look like it will start here.
The Royals have been average against righties in the last month. They have a 101 wRC+ with a walk rate under 8% and strikeout rate a touch above 20%. The Royals have five bats eclipsing a .325 xwOBA, but otherwise, this lineup has plenty of holes at the bottom, which should prolong Bibee’s start against them.
The Royals have issues in relief. Their xFIP is 4.84, with a 16.7% strikeout rate and 9.9% walk rate. They only have two arms under the 4.00 mark.
Luckily, Singer has shown he can go five-plus innings. This could help the bullpen woes for Kansas City.
Guardians vs. Royals
Betting Pick & Prediction
Cleveland has the edge, but the moneyline does not hold much value. Instead, targeting the under in this matchup is the right move.
Look for Singer and Bibee to keep runners off of the bases and for the bullpens to pull their weight. Bet the under from 8.5 to 7.5 as there are too many holes in each lineup to put up runs consistently.
Pick: Under 8.5 to 7.5
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