The red-hot Cleveland Guardians were finally slowed in their tracks by the Orioles last night, ending a seven-game winning streak which has pushed them eight games clear of the Twins in the AL Central.
Now, it's time to head to the pitcher-friendly Kauffman Stadium where Cleveland will put its offensive form to the test once again. Can Ben Lively keep his stellar season going against an ice-cold Kansas City offense to deliver yet another win, or might we see a low-scoring game with Michael Wacha on the other side of this one?
Let's take a look at a few elements in this game and cook up a same game parlay for Guardians vs. Royals on Thursday, June 27.
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
Guardians vs Royals Same Game Parlay: Thursday, June 27
- Under 9 (-115)
- Michael Wacha 4+ Strikeouts (-106)
- Michael Massey To Record a Hit (-220)
- Bobby Witt Jr. 2+ Total Bases (-170)
Parlay Odds: +628 (FanDuel)
Under 9 (-115)
Guardians vs. Royals | 8:10 p.m. ET, FS1
The first part of the equation here will be backing a low-scoring game at Kauffman Stadium, which ranks quite highly when it comes to overall Park Factor but which has been one of the five-toughest parks to hit home runs.
That's of particular interest here when we're talking about Ben Lively, who has pitched almost 10 points above the league average for fly balls and Michael Wacha, who's also come in above the league norm in that regard.
Kansas City ranks first among all teams in fly ball rate this season, and while the Guardians sit back in 17th, that should work against them considering they're hitting 12 points better against ground-ballers. Sure, their slugging is slightly elevated in the split on account of more home runs against launch angle-oriented pitchers, but we have to remember that home runs should really not factor into this game.
So, if we simply look at whether or not this team can do enough damage with hits to achieve such a high total, I think we will see this game sneak under. Wacha's slowly improving this season with the strikeouts and walks trending in the right direction, and the offense behind him has been the worst in the game over the last two weeks.
Michael Wacha 4+ Strikeouts (-106)
Guardians vs. Royals | 8:10 p.m. ET, FS1
Let's dig into that a bit further. You might see a guy who's struck out just 20.2% of the batters he's faced this year, which is right in line with the 20.8% strikeout rate for his long career, and leave the punchout props by the wayside. After all, the Guardians are hitting the ball well at the moment and continue to exhibit brilliance in getting the ball in play with a 17.5% strikeout rate over the last two weeks.
Well, Wacha's beginning to find some more swings and misses, and recently struck out five against the Rangers who profile similarly in plate discipline. His strikeout rate is now up over 26% in June, and he's generated a 44.4% whiff rate on his changeup, which is a drastic jump from the roughly 32% rate we saw in the first two months of the season.
The Guardians have been perfectly average in run value to changeups this year, and in the last two weeks they're second-worst in baseball with a drop-off in production against the slider as well. This should open the door for Wacha to hit this very low strikeout total, which he's now done in four of his last six starts.
Michael Massey To Record A Hit (-220)
Guardians vs. Royals | 8:10 p.m. ET, FS1
I want to spice this parlay up a bit, so I'll throw two Royals hitters into the equation here. The first is Michael Massey, who has thrived against fly ball pitchers in his short career by hitting .277 as compared to .236 against fly ball pitchers — and in small sample this year, he's been the team's third-best hitter against these types, hitting .317.
Remember, we're looking at base hits here considering the conditions for home runs are unfriendly, and while the spacious nature of the park allows for doubles and triples I'm not entirely confident in relying on guys who have slugged well in the split considering there's only one man (we'll get to him in a second) who's consistently gone for extra bases in this lineup.
Bobby Witt Jr. 2+ Total Bases (-170)
Guardians vs. Royals | 8:10 p.m. ET, FS1
Bobby Witt, Jr. is the man who we can feel relatively confident in backing to get to two total bases here, considering the odds on him doing so on one swing are pretty good. He's hitting a stunning .327 against fly-ball arms with 20 doubles and four triples and he's come up with 23 extra-base hits in 161 at-bats at home, excluding homers, to just seven on the road in 167 at-bats.
His ability to find the gaps and use his speed work wonders in Kansas City, and against a pitcher who will allow plenty of contact — and plenty in the air, at that — I love throwing Witt into the mix to get the odds on this parlay up into an exciting range.
