The Cleveland Guardians enter Game 4 of the ALCS against the New York Yankees on a high after a thrilling walk-off win at home.
With the series set at 2-1, the Guardians will look to build on their momentum while the Yankees are looking to extend their series lead on the road.
I compiled a three-leg Guardians vs Yankees parlay for Friday's ALCS game that pays out at +500. Let's get to my MLB picks for Game 4.
Guardians vs Yankees Game 4 Parlay
- Gavin Williams 2+ Walks Allowed (-145)
- Steven Kwan Over 0.5 Walks (-120)
- Aaron Judge 2+ Total Bases (+120)
Parlay Odds: +500 (DraftKings)
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
We haven't seen Gavin Williams pitch since late September, but when he was last on the hill he was having an awful time limiting the walks.
Williams' walk rate for the season stands at a brutal 9.6%, and he's walked two or more batters in all but three of his 16 starts this season. Even his two shortest outings, which spanned 2/3 of an inning and 3 2/3, saw him issue a combined five free passes.
Now, it's time for arguably the worst matchup which Williams could ask for. The Yankees have walked a ridiculous 15.4% of the time in this series, and for the postseason stand at a league-high 16.5%. They walked four times against Williams in just 4 1/3 innings when these two met in August, and even if Williams is pulled early we should still get home.
Sticking with walks, let's talk about Steven Kwan.
We know the Guardians outfielder for his incredible contact ability and don't generally think of him as a patient hitter, but that's exactly who he's been over the last month and a half.
Kwan has now walked three times in the last two games and owns a 13.2% walk rate, which is third on the team. To finish up the season, he walked in seven of his last eight games, earning a base on balls a total of 10 times over that span.
Now, we know Luis Gil is going to walk some folks. He's been on of the worst in baseball in that regard, owning a 12.1% walk rate during the regular season, and he walked a whopping six Guardians when these teams last met in August. What's even crazier is that half of those walks came against Kwan.
With a knack for picking up Gil, or perhaps the ability to impose fear in the righty, I expect Kwan to continue walking here.
Finally, I think it's a good idea to go back to the well with Aaron Judge against a fastball pitcher.
The big man has now homered in back-to-back games, and he's recorded two or more total bases in three of the last four. He's only faced Williams twice, earning a hit, but given the fact he's posted a .351 Expected Batting Average against four-seam fastballs from righties, I think he should get to the flamethrowing Williams here.
I'll also point out that he's brought his xBA up to .280 over the last four games, hitting the ball 95+ mph off the bat 60% of the time he makes contact.
I like this matchup a lot for Judge considering he'll face nothing but fastballs from Williams, and expect him to continue trending upwards.
