The Boston Red Sox host the Houston Astros on May 2, 2026. First pitch from Fenway Park is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET. The game will be broadcast on SCHN.
The Red Sox are favored by -124 on the moneyline and are +1.5 on the run line. The Astros are +106 on the moneyline and -1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 9 runs.
Find our MLB picks and Astros vs Red Sox prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Astros vs Red Sox Prediction
- Astros vs Red Sox Pick: Yordan Alvarez Home Run (+410)
Our Astros vs Red Sox best bet is on Yordan Alvarez to hit a home run today. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Astros vs Red Sox Odds
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +164 | 9 -105o / -115u | +106 |
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -200 | 9 -105o / -115u | -124 |
- Astros vs Red Sox moneyline: Astros +106, Red Sox -124
- Astros vs Red Sox over/under: 9 (-150o / -115u)
- Astros vs Red Sox spread: Astros -1.5 (+164), Red Sox +1.5 (-200)
Astros vs Red Sox Probable Pitchers
| RHP Spencer Arrighetti (HOU) | Stat | LHP Connelly Early (BOS) |
|---|---|---|
| 3-0 | W-L | 2-1 |
| 0.3 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.2 |
| 2.00 / 5.01 | ERA / xERA | 2.84 / 5.08 |
| 3.69 / 4.56 | FIP / xFIP | 4.62 / 4.43 |
| 15.4 | K-BB% | 10.7 |
| 34.1 | GB% | 43.0 |
| .233 | BABIP | .244 |
| 99 | Stuff+ | 102 |
| 91 | Location+ | 95 |
Astros vs Red Sox MLB Betting Preview
Action PRO projects Yordan Alvarez for 0.3 home runs in the Astros' matchup against the Red Sox this afternoon, giving us a 6.3% edge against the market when compared to his current prop line of over/under 0.5, which is good enough to mark the over with a C grade in our system.
Alvarez is tied with Aaron Judge for the runner-up spot in the majors with 12 homers this season, only behind Munetaka Murakami's 13 dingers.
Today, he will have a chance to add to his tally against Connelly Early.
If you're wondering how unlikely that is given the lefty vs. lefty matchup, consider the following splits for both players.
Alvarez is doing much better against southpaws this season with a 1.235 OPS, .786 SLG and .381 AVG compared to 1.111, .667 and .321 versus righties. Plus, he's hit five HRs in just 42 at-bats against LHP compared to seven in 81 versus RHP.
Meanwhile, Early is having a tougher time against lefties with .414 SLG and .687 OPS compared to .333 and .660 versus right-handed batters. Regarding homers, the Red Sox starter has given up two to lefties in 29 at-bats compared to two from righties in 84.
At a great value, let's back Alvarez to hit another home run.
Pick: Yordan Alvarez Home Run (+410, FanDuel)
