The Houston Astros (81-69) and San Diego Padres (86-65) play the middle game of their interleague series on Tuesday night at Petco Park. First pitch is set for 9:40 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on TruTV and Space City Home Network. With that, let's dive into my Astros vs Padres prediction.
Tuesday's Astros-Padres clash features two high-quality starting pitchers as Hunter Brown takes on Michael King. Both starters have ERAs below 2.50 since the All-Star break, but get tough matchups against two of the hottest lineups in MLB.
On the postseason front, the Astros own a four-game lead in the AL West while the Padres have 2 1/2 game lead for the first NL wild-card spot. What can we expect from this potential World Series matchup?
Astros-Padres Predictions
- Astros-Padres picks: Over 7.5 (+100 | Play to -110)
My Astros-Padres best bet is on Over 7.5 runs, where I see value at +100. The best line is available at bet365, as well as other sportsbooks — make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Astros vs Padres Odds
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-105 | 7 -120o / +100u | +1.5 -225 |
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-115 | 7 -120o / +100u | -1.5 +185 |
Projected Starting Pitchers for Astros-Padres on Tuesday
| RHP Hunter Brown (HOU) | Stat | RHP Michael King (SD) |
|---|---|---|
| 11-8 | W-L | 12-9 |
| 2.9 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 3.6 |
| 3.59 / 3.26 | ERA /xERA | 3.06 / 3.48 |
| 3.60 / 3.47 | FIP / xFIP | 3.40 / 3.48 |
| 1.29 | WHIP | 1.21 |
| 16.8% | K-BB% | 19.3% |
| 48.7% | GB% | 40.6% |
| 103 | Stuff+ | 94 |
| 101 | Location+ | 102 |
Nick Martin’s Astros vs Padres Preview
Houston Astros Betting Preview: Offense Surging
The Astros were held to just six hits and one run in the series opener on Monday, but had been in a fairly dominant stretch of play prior to that.
Over the last two weeks, Houston has hit to the sixth-best wRC+ and fourth-best BB/K. This current Astros core has always been among the best lineups in baseball versus righties (3rd in wRC+ since 2021), and has been as expected recently with a wRC+ of 110 against right-handers over the last month.
The Astros will be without Chas McCormick for this matchup, and Jon Singleton, who's been formidable against righties this season with a .775 OPS, could be sidelined with illness (day-to-day).
Aside from a horrid start to the season, Hunter Brown has been one of the very best pitchers in baseball. In 102 2/3 innings, he has pitched to an ERA of 2.19 with an xFIP of 3.25.
Brown, however, has offered a few more signs of concern recently. In his last five starts, he has allowed a zone contact rate of 91.5% and he has seen his swinging strike rate dip to 8.8%. He holds a Pitching+ rating of 100 in that span.
San Diego Padres Betting Preview: Can King Keep It Up?
Similar to Brown, Michael King has been among MLB's best starters recently, but he could be due for some regression.
In King's last five starts, he holds an xFIP of 4.15, with Stuff+ and Pitching+ ratings of 97. He has allowed an OPS of just .577 with runners in scoring position (RISP) this season, which has helped him achieve a 3.06 ERA compared to his expected mark of 3.48.
On offense, the Padres were finally close to fielding an entirely healthy lineup only to see Luis Arraez suffer an apparent knee injury on Monday. Arraez is listed as day-to-day and could miss this matchup.
Since August 1, the Padres rank second in MLB in wRC+ versus right-handed pitching — NL West rival Arizona ranks first. The Padres have struck out less than any other team in that span by some margin (16.2%), rank second in K/BB ratio and rank seventh in hard-hit rate.
Astros vs Padres Prediction, Betting Analysis
King's underlying numbers have tailed off over his last several outings, and he gets one of the toughest matchups in baseball in this spot. The Padres bullpen is fairly taxed, too, and may not be as reliable as normal in this matchup.
The Padres offer one of the deepest lineups in baseball, and continue to feature one of the best approaches at the plate. They have been the second-best team in the league versus righties, and should make it tough for Brown to pitch deep into this game.
While both of these starters have been dominant in the second half, that looks to well accounted for by a low total of 7.5. At anything better than -110, I see value betting this game to go over.
Pick: Over 7.5 Runs (+100; bet365) | Play to -110
Moneyline
The Astros are 39-37 on the road this season and 17-20 as an underdog. They are also 90-66 on the road since the 2023 season, which is the third-highest winning percentage in that span.
The Padres are 41-34 at home and 54-40 as a favorite.
Over/Under
Totals at Petco Park this season are 79-66-4 (O/U). The over has hit 59% of the time (15.1% ROI), which is the second-highest mark in MLB (Marlins are first at 68.9%).
The total is 28-46-2 (O/U) in Astros road games this season. Totals are 17-20 when Houston is an underdog.
Astros-Padres Betting Trends
- 67% of the bets and 80% of the money are on the Padres moneyline.
- 70% of the bets and 71% of the money are on the over (7.5).
- 70% of the bets and 60% of the money are on the Padres to cover the run line.
Astros Betting Trends
- The Astros are 4-1 in their last five games
- The Astros are 4-6 in their last 10 road games
- The Astros are 38-38 in road games against the spread
- The Astros are 4-1 in their last five games against the spread
Padres Betting Trends
- The Padres are 4-1 in their last five games
- The Padres are 6-4 in their last ten home games
- The Padres are 32-43 in home games against the spread
- The Padres are 3-2 in their last five games against the spread
