The Kansas City Royals will host the Boston Red Sox on Wednesday in the series finale at Kauffman Stadium. Boston won the first two games of this three-game set, now looking for a sweep.
Kansas City (63-52) is 5 1/2 games out of the AL Central lead and holds onto the last AL wild-card spot by a half-game entering Wednesday. The team that trails them is the Red Sox (61-51), who have made up a lot of ground in this crucial series. Boston has pulled within 5 1/2 games of the AL East lead and will have a chance at competing in the postseason.
Despite Boston winning the first two games of this series, Royals vs Red Sox odds have the Royals as -148 moneyline favorites with an over/under of 8.5 (-115o / -105u). You can find my preview for this series finale and my Royals vs Red Sox prediction and F5 pick below.
Kansas City Royals vs Boston Red Sox Odds & Prediction
| Royals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-150 | 8.5 -105o / -115u | -1.5 +143 |
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
+125 | 8.5 -105o / -115u | +1.5 -170 |
Royals-Red Sox Projected Starting Pitchers — Cole Ragans vs Kutter Crawford
| LHP Cole Ragans (KC) | Stat | RHP Kutter Crawford (BOS) |
|---|---|---|
| 8-7 | W-L | 7-8 |
| 3.9 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.3 |
| 3.36 / 3.29 | ERA /xERA | 3.77 / 4.04 |
| 2.82 / 3.36 | FIP / xFIP | 4.75 / 4.22 |
| 1.16 | WHIP | 1.09 |
| 20.7% | K-BB% | 17.4% |
| 40.2% | GB% | 33.8% |
| 108 | Stuff+ | 107 |
| 100 | Location+ | 106 |
Cody Goggin's Royals at Red Sox Preview
Royals Betting Preview: Ragans is KC's Ace
Cole Ragans has emerged as one of the best pitchers on the Royals’ staff this season. The 26-year-old has a 3.36 ERA, a 3.29 xERA, and a 3.45 SIERA over 134 innings this season. In those innings, Ragans has amassed an impressive 159 strikeouts, ranking in the 87th percentile among qualified pitchers in strikeout rate and 92nd percentile in whiff rate.
Ragans ranks 15th among 66 qualifying pitchers in Stuff+. However, he ranks 47th in Location+ as he has a slightly below-average walk rate. Ragans does have solid contact numbers as he ranks in the 71st percentile in barrel rate allowed, the 62nd percentile in hard-hit rate allowed, and the 58th percentile in average exit velocity allowed.
The Royals rank 17th in wRC+ and 12th in wOBA. They walk at the third-lowest rate in baseball but strike out at the second-lowest rate.
Kansas City has shown some power, ranking 10th in SLG and 12th in ISO. The Royals are also 10th in hard-hit rate, 18th in barrel rate, and fifth in average exit velocity. They have the fifth-lowest ground ball rate in the league and rank third in fly ball rate, elevating many batted balls.
Red Sox Betting Preview: Can Crawford Keep the Ball on the Ground?
Kutter Crawford will take the mound for Boston on Wednesday night. He has a 3.81 ERA and 4.04 xERA in 127 2/3 IP in his second full season in the big league rotation.
Crawford has flashed excellent control, posting a walk rate of 5.7%, which ranks in the 85th percentile. His strikeout rate is slightly above average, in the 56th percentile.
Crawford’s issues have come from his batted balls — specifically, barrels. He ranks in the sixth percentile of qualified pitchers in barrel rate allowed, likely because he can't keep balls out of the air, ranking in the 12th percentile in ground-ball rate.
The Red Sox rank eighth in wRC+ and second in wOBA this season. They strike out at the fourth-highest rate but rank second in SLG and fourth in OBP. The offense has been on fire, as they lead baseball in wRC+ (145) over the past month.
Boston ranks fifth in hard-hit rate, eighth in barrel rate, and eighth in exit velocity this season. While the Red Sox hit the ball hard, their .325 BABIP may be lucky. Boston ranks second in batting average this season but 14th in expected batting average.
Royals vs Red Sox Predictions, Betting Analysis
Boston’s offense has been on a tear lately, making it a tough matchup for Ragans. The Red Sox are great on the road and have been only slightly worse against left-handers this season.
But, considering Ragans’ strikeout ability, I think he could put a solid start against this offense.
Conversely, I think Kansas City’s offense has the upper hand. Crawford struggles to keep the ball on the ground and rarely walks or strikes batters. The Royals have been great at elevating the ball, and with their contact quality numbers, I think we could see some power on display.
My favorite bet in this game is the Royals to score over 2.5 runs in the first five innings. I like the matchup between their approach at the plate and Crawford’s weaknesses. Crawford has been a solid pitcher, so there’s a chance this doesn’t hit, but at +114, I love taking the Royals to put at least three runs on the board against him.
Pick: Royals F5 TT Over 2.5 (+114 at DraftKings) Play to 2.5 (+105)
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Moneyline
Kansas City has one of the worst bullpens in the Major Leagues. It ranks 26th in xFIP and 21st in ERA. Although it made some moves to try to shore this up at the deadline, I still don’t want to back this bullpen.
As outlined above, I think the Royals will win this game, but at current market prices, I don’t love laying negative odds for this full-game moneyline against a dangerous offense.
Run Line (Spread)
Like my thoughts on the moneyline, I don’t love backing the Royals for the full game here. However, I am likelier to do this on the runline at plus odds.
There is an outsized potential, in my opinion, for the Royals’ offense to put up a lot of runs on Crawford and chase him from the game early, as indicated by my main bet on this game, so I think the probability of Kansas City winning by multiple runs is a better bet than the standard moneyline.
Over/Under
The Royals' offense has been much better at home this season, posting a 107 wRC+ compared to an 88 mark on the road. Kauffman Stadium has the third-highest park factor this season, trailing only Colorado and Arizona.
Despite having a favorable home park, Boston has also hit better on the road this season. Their wRC+ is 103 at home, but they rank second in MLB with a 118 wRC+ on the road.
I would lean towards the over in this matchup, but I also respect Ragans’ abilities and don’t want to be on the total.
