The Dodgers will look to respond after dropping both games in an important series in San Diego. Their division lead now sits at just 4.5 games after posting a rare losing month with an 11-13 record in July.
Contrarily, the Athletics come into this series in strong form, having managed their first winning month in two seasons.
Here's my Dodgers vs Athletics predictions, picks and the MLB odds for the game today.
Dodgers vs Athletics Odds & Pick
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-152 | 8.5 -110 / -110 | -1.5 +114 |
| Athletics Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+128 | 8.5 -110 / -110 | +1.5 -137 |
Dodgers vs Athletics Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Gavin Stone (LAD) | Stat | RHP Joey Estes (OAK) |
|---|---|---|
| 9-4 | W-L | 4-4 |
| 1.70 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.8 |
| 3.34/3.84 | ERA /xERA | 4.92/4.29 |
| 3.83/4.19 | FIP / xFIP | 4.37/5.22 |
| 1.26 | WHIP | 1.25 |
| 11.6% | K-BB% | 11.3% |
| 43.6% | GB% | 23.2% |
| 99 | Stuff+ | 94 |
| 103 | Location+ | 107 |
Nick Martin's Dodgers vs Athletics Preview
Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Preview: Sinking Like a Stone?
Gavin Stone has seen his form tail off to some extent entering this matchup after a brilliant start to his rookie campaign. Over the last 33 innings pitched (six starts), he holds an ERA of 4.09 with an xFIP of 4.18. He's struck out 7.09 batters per nine in that span and holds a xBA of .244.
Stone has allowed at least one home run in four straight starts, which has really tanked the results of an otherwise sound process.
Since Mookie Betts' injury on June 16, the Dodgers have still remained a better than average side in splits against right-handed pitching. They own a wRC+ of 118 against righties in that span (ninth in MLB), with a 15th-ranked BB/K ratio and a 24th-ranked hard-hit rate (29.1%).
Oakland Athletics Betting Preview: Estes Better at Home
Led by Lawrence Butler and Brent Rooker, the Athletics' offense went off in July, averaging over six runs per game and finishing with a league-leading wRC+ of 136. They hit to a wRC+ of 136 against right-handed pitching, in particular, over that span.
Their process looked somewhat less convincing based on an 11th-ranked BB/K and a 21st-ranked hard-hit rate, but a HR/FB of 16.7% allowed them to produce plenty of runs.
Joey Estes was brought in to pitch just 2 2/3 innings on Friday, but he's otherwise been used as a starter all season long.
Aside from a horrid outing on a very batter friendly day at Fenway Park, Estes has been in solid form of late, with an ERA of 3.93 over his last 36 2/3 innings pitched. He's been hard hit 38% of the time in that span and has allowed a xBA of .244.
Estes has pitched to drastically better results at the Coliseum this season, as he holds an ERA of 2.12 in 34 innings of work at home. He's allowed a slug rate of only .322.
His 3.19 FIP is also drastically better than his 5.44 mark on the road.
Dodgers vs Athletics Prediction, Betting Analysis
Stone has suffered through his worst stretch of the season — amid a tough schedule of opponents — but he still should be a well above-average starter moving forward and features no notable red flags leading to this bad run of form.
The Athletics have likely been playing a little above their heads of late and haven't been as entirely dominant against righties as lefties.
Estes has the potential to be a middle-of-the-pack starter this season and could have a decent outing if not forced to work too deep into this game. The Athletics' bullpen has been a strength recently and enters in good shape after an off day yesterday.
Los Angeles' bullpen has been concerning of late, but it projects to find better results moving forward and shouldn't be such a disaster the rest of the way. So what does that all mean for my prediction on tonight's A's-Dodgers game?
Prediction for Best Bet: This Total is Too High
For a game at the Coliseum, a betting total of 8.5 looks a touch too high, especially considering the starters on the mound.
At anything better than -115, I see value backing the under.
Pick: Under 8.5 (-110 | bet365, Play to -115)
Moneyline
Given that this is an interleague matchup, there's not a lot of data on these teams going head-to-head that doesn't date back far beyond having any meaning.
At the current price of -150, the Dodgers would be my lean, but purely based on number, it doesn't project as a bet worth making.
- The Dodgers are 1-4 in their last five games.
- The Dodgers are 2-3 in their last five games against the spread.
- The Dodgers are 27-27 in their road games against the spread.
- The totals have gone over in three of Dodgers' last five games.
- The totals have gone over in 30 of Dodgers' last 53 games at home.
- The Athletics are 3-2 in their last five games.
- The Athletics are 3-2 in their last five games against the spread.
- The Athletics are 27-30 in their road games against the spread.
- The totals have gone over in one of Athletics' last five games.
- The totals have gone over in 27 of Athletics' last 53 games at home.
Run Line (Spread)
Despite their ugly record, the Athletics are above .500 against the spread this season, with a mark of 57-54 overall and 30-23 at home. Los Angeles is 54-53 versus the run line this season and 27-27 on the road.
There doesn't look to be any value with a pick against the run line in this matchup, but I would bet the Dodgers -1.5 if they hit +125.
Over/Under
Games at the Coliseum this season have seen the over go 27-26, while Dodgers road games have seen the over go 25-29.
As noted, my best bet lies with the under 8.5 in this matchup.
