The Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Mets continue their National League Championship Series on Thursday night at Citi Field. First pitch is scheduled for 8:08 p.m. ET and the game will be broadcast on FS1 — other streaming/viewing options include MLB.TV and Fubo.
The Dodgers, who lead the NLCS 2-1, will be without two key players in their starting lineup on Thursday as Freddie Freeman and Gavin Lux are both sidelined.
Dodgers vs Mets odds have the Dodgers are -130 moneyline favorites and the Mets as +110 underdogs. The over/under is 7 (-120o / +100u). The Dodgers are +125 to cover the run line (-1.5) while the Mets are -150 (+1.5).
Let's get into my NLCS Game 4 preview and Dodgers vs Mets predictions and picks for Thursday, Oct. 17.
My Dodgers vs Mets Predictions for Game 4
- Dodgers vs Mets picks: First Five Innings Under 4 (Bet to -130), BetMGM
My Mets vs Dodgers best bet for Game 4 on Thursday is First Five Innings Under 4, where I see value at -125. The best line is available at BetMGM, but make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Dodgers vs Mets Game 4 Odds, Predictions
| Los Angeles Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-130 | 7 -120o / +100u | -1.5 +125 |
| New York Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
+110 | 7 -120o / +100u | +1.5 -150 |
- Dodgers vs Mets Moneyline: Dodgers -130, Mets +110
- Dodgers vs Mets Total: Over/Under 7 (-120o / +100u)
- Dodgers vs Mets Run Line: Dodgers -1.5 (+125), Mets +1.5 (-150)
Game 4 Probable Pitchers for Dodgers vs Mets
| RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD) | Stat | LHP Jose Quintana (NYM) |
|---|---|---|
| 7-2 | W-L | 10-10 |
| 2.8 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.0 |
| 3.00/3.44 | ERA /xERA | 3.75/4.49 |
| 2.61/2.86 | FIP / xFIP | 4.56/4.44 |
| 1.11 | WHIP | 1.25 |
| 22.6% | K-BB% | 10.0% |
| 48.3% | GB% | 48.2% |
| 100 | Stuff+ | 83 |
| 105 | Location+ | 97 |
Dodgers vs Mets NLCS Game 4 Previews, Predictions, Lineups
Dodgers Game 4 Betting Preview
Dodgers Game 4 Lineup
- Shohei Ohtani (DH)
- Mookie Betts (RF)
- Teoscar Hernandez (LF)
- Tommy Edman (SS)
- Enrique Hernandez (3B)
- Max Muncy (1B)
- Will Smith (C)
- Andy Pages (CF)
- Chris Taylor (2B)
The Dodgers finally seem to be growing back into the offense we all knew during the regular season, bringing their walk rate up to 11.6% in eight postseason games with a climbing .156 Isolated Power. This team is still far off its season-long pace in that department, though things have been slowly improving with two more long balls in Game 3 on Wednesday.
L.A. will move into a matchup on Thursday against a ground-ball arm, a split that's generally been favorable for them with a .799 OPS this season compared to a .755 OPS the other way around. The Dodgers also sat atop baseball with a 121 wRC+ versus left-handed pitching this season, and in the only meeting with Quintana, they cobbled together three runs on eight hits — including two homers — over six innings.
On the hill, we can certainly say Yoshinobu Yamamoto is trending upward. He looked less than his best early in the NLDS, allowing five runs over just three innings, but turned in a masterful performance in a decisive Game 5, with just three batters reaching base across five scoreless innings.
Yamamoto may have struggled to find punchouts against a disciplined Padres team, but he'll draw a Mets lineup striking out in 25% of all plate appearances this postseason.
Mets Game 4 Betting Preview
Mets Game 4 Lineup
- Francisco Lindor (SS)
- Mark Vientos (3B)
- Pete Alonso (1B)
- Brandon Nimmo (LF)
- Starling Marte (RF)
- JD Martinez (DH)
- Jose Iglesias (2B)
- Harrison Bader (CF)
- Francisco Alvarez (C)
Manager Carlos Mendoza should receive an A grade in terms of cultivating some positive energy among his ball club this season, but his decision-making all year has earned a solid D+.
New York chose to bench one of its best hitters, who had great numbers against starter Walker Buehler, when J.D. Martinez earned a start at DH in Game 3 over Jesse Winker. The struggling Jose Iglesias was also penciled in once again in favor of Jeff McNeil, and there's been absolutely no thought given to using Harrison Bader — who hit five home runs last postseason for the Yankees — in favor of a slumping Tyrone Taylor in center field.
While starters hold less weight in the postseason, when managers use their bench quite liberally, Mendoza sat on his hands Wednesday as his team went down 4-0, refusing to go to his bench in key situations with runners on base and allowing his cold bats to continue stepping into the box.
I say all of this because it doesn't appear we'll be in for any changes in Game 4. Mendoza told reporters that he likes his right-handed bats here with Yamamoto owning some poor reverse platoon splits, meaning we can expect the same lineup for New York — one which severely lacked quality from 6-9 in the order. That could spell disaster, as the Mets have hit just .179 as a team in this series with a poor .084 ISO.
The good news is that Jose Quintana has been excellent this postseason, with 11 punchouts over 11 scoreless innings. He shut down one of the best offenses in the league versus left-handed pitching when he stunned the Phillies in the NLDS, and while he's walked three batters he's scattered just six hits.
Dodgers vs Mets Prediction & Game 4 Betting Analysis
The conditions for offense in this one certainly don't seem all that grand, with temperatures once again expected to drop below 50 degrees and the wind blowing in from left field at 10 mph. Both pitchers will be inducing plenty of contact on the ground, too.
While the Dodgers have been masterful against ground-ball arms, the Mets rank 19th in OPS in the same split, hitting just .238. They've got a black hole at the bottom of this order, which should continue with no changes expected from Mendoza, leading me to believe this one will get off to a very slow start.
The Dodgers have most of their top arms rested entering this one, but New York's bullpen continues to be a liability. That's going to scare me off playing the under for the entire game — and with the Mets' flair for the dramatic in the late innings, it would further seem like a bad bet.
We'll pivot to the first five innings as a result, backing Quintana to limit the damage in a game where home runs will be hard to come by.
Pick: First Five Innings Under 4 (-125)
Moneyline
The only thing that can stop this Dodgers team from winning would be a wild swing in the right direction from the bottom of the Mets' order, which looks lost at the plate right now, and a collapse from a bullpen that is well-rested and ready for just about any scenario on Thursday.
The Dodgers look very live on the moneyline as a result at this price.
Lean: Dodgers -135
Run Line (Spread)
The Dodgers are 39-41 in their road games against the spread, but the Mets are just 2-3 to the run line in their last five.
Pick: Pass
Over/Under
The totals have gone OVER in 42 of Mets' 81 past games at home, and in three of the Dodgers' last five games.
Pick: Pass
Dodgers Betting Trends
- The totals have gone OVER in three of the Dodgers' last five games
- The Dodgers were 39-41 in their road games against the spread during the regular season
Mets Betting Trends
- The totals have gone OVER in 42 of Mets' 81 last games at home
- The Mets are just 2-3 to the run line in their past five games
Mets vs Dodgers Key Injuries for Game 4
Dodgers Injuries & News
| Player | Status |
|---|---|
| 1B Freddie Freeman | Right ankle sprain (not in starting lineup for Game 4) |
| 2B Gavin Lux | Hip (not in starting lineup for Game 4) |
Dodgers vs Mets Game 4 Viewing Info: Channel, Start Time, Streaming
| Location: | Citi Field in Queens, N.Y. |
| Date: | Thursday, Oct. 17, 2024 |
| Time: | 8:08 p.m. ET |
| TV & Streaming Options: | FS1 / MLB.TV, Fubo |
