The Phillies host the Dodgers on Tuesday, July 21. First pitch from Citizens Bank Park is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET. The game will be broadcast on TBS.
The Phillies are favored by -134 on the moneyline and by +160 on the run line. The Dodgers are +114 on the moneyline and -194 on the run line. The total is set at 8.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Dodgers vs Phillies prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Dodgers vs Phillies Prediction
- Dodgers vs Phillies Pick: Under 8.5
My Dodgers vs Phillies best bet is on the under. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Dodgers vs Phillies Odds, Run Line
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -196 | 9 -105o / -115u | +106 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +162 | 9 -105o / -115u | -124 |
- Dodgers vs Phillies moneyline: Dodgers +106, Phillies -124
- Dodgers vs Phillies over/under: 9 runs
- Dodgers vs Phillies spread: Phillies -1.5
Dodgers vs Phillies Probable Pitchers
| LHP Justin Wrobleski (LAD) | Stat | RHP Zack Wheeler (PHI) |
|---|---|---|
| 10-2 | W-L | 10-1 |
| 2.4 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.8 |
| 2.69 / 4.13 | ERA / xERA | 2.13 / 2.64 |
| 3.37 / 4.25 | FIP / xFIP | 2.95 / 2.83 |
| 13.3% | K-BB% | 24.2% |
| 40.5% | GB% | 45.7% |
| .251 | BABIP | .239 |
| 96 | Stuff+ | 104 |
| 111 | Location+ | 108 |
Dodgers vs Phillies MLB Betting Preview
Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Preview
It's another Justin Wrobleski game. The guy has had some kind of season. He looked like the 6th or 7th option for the Dodgers before the season began, but he's been right there with Yamamoto in being their most valuable arm. Wrobleski's health has help up, unlike most of his teammates, and he now sports a 2.69 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP after 15 starts.
It's all about weak contact with Wrobleski. His 18.3% K% leaves a lot to be desired, but he's given up just eight homers and has limited hitters to a .323 SLG. His BABIP against is .251, which is a little bit low, but he's been consistently delivering locations that turn into batted balls that turn into outs.
The Phillies rely heavily on their two big lefties, so we should always check the splits.
Wrobleski vs. RHB: 17% K%, 5% BB%, .319 xwOBA
Wrobleski vs. LHB: 22% K%, 6% BB%, .297 xwOBA
The key to beating the Phillies is keeping Harper and Schwarber off the scoreboard. They are the only two hitters above an .850 OPS. Brandon Marsh has cooled off. Trea Turner has just a .691 OPS even after a big day yesterday.
I think Wrobleski can continue to defy the odds and keep the Phillies at bay here. It's worth noting that he has recently found the strikeout pitch, with 20 strikeouts and just two walks in his last two outings.
Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview
Zack Wheeler is absolutely rolling again. He's struck out 10, 14, and 10 in his last three outings. He has 60 whiffs in these last three. It's been prime Wheeler. A 48% K%, a 19.7% SwStr%, and a .188 xwOBA allowed the last three outings.
He gets a challenge tonight against the Dodgers. They lead the league in team OPS, and they're #2 against right-handed pitchers. So this is a stud pitcher against a stud offense.
The Dodgers do not strike out much against righties. They're at just a 20.7% K% this year and have a high 76% Contact%. So it's tough to pick a side here!
Dodgers vs Phillies Pick, Betting Analysis
Let's see what the projection says:
Wheeler's Projection: 6.1 IP, 5 H, 2.6 ER, 7.5 SO, 1.9 BB
Wrobleski's Projection: 5.2 IP, 5.8 H, 2.7 ER, 5.2 SO, 1.2 BB
The advanced models I have are pointing to under 8.5 in this one. I simmed the game on my sim tool, and we're getting an average of just 7.5 runs. Wrobleski matches up very well with the Phillies, and Wheeler just seems untouchable right now. And these bullpens rank 4th (LAD) and 7th (PHI), so we the hitters have nine tough innings ahead of them.
I can't even find a single hitter that profiles well in this matchup. It looks like all of these guys are just in down spots. So it's all about pitching in this one. I'm keeping my pick very simple.
Pick: Under 8.5
