Mariners vs. Padres Odds
| Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+120 | 7.5 -110 / -110 | +1.5 -175 |
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -142 | 7.5 -110 / -110 | -1.5 +146 |
The San Diego Padres and Seattle Mariners both made the playoffs last year and had preseason expectations of going back again.
There was a lot of optimism around the Padres with superstar outfielder Fernando Tatis Jr. coming back and the addition of shortstop Xander Bogaerts in free agency. The Mariners made a trade for former Toronto Blue Jays outfielder Teoscar Hernandez.
Neither team is on track to make the playoffs at the moment, but there's still a lot of season left. Who will be able to get the job done in this matchup tonight?
The Parlay (+895):
- Logan Gilbert Over 5.5 Strikeouts
- Julio Rodriguez 2+ Total Bases
- Padres Moneyline
Same-Game Parlay – Seattle Mariners vs San Diego Padres
Logan Gilbert Over 5.5 Strikeouts
This number seems too low to me for Gilbert in this spot. Gilbert has a 28% strikeout percentage and has gone over this number in nine of his 11 starts this season.
The Padres also strike out quite a bit as a team. San Diego's projected lineup has a 23% strikeout percentage against right-handed pitching this season. Five hitters in the Padres' projected lineup have at least a 20% strikeout percentage against right-handed pitching this season.
I think Gilbert goes over the number here.
Julio Rodriguez 2+ Total Bases
Joe Musgrove is on the mound for the Padres in this one. Musgrove has a 4.76 xFIP so far this season. He's allowed a .215 ISO to right-handed hitters this year.
Julio Rodriguez is the Mariners' best offensive player and has a .198 ISO against right-handed pitching this year. Since the beginning of last year, Rodriguez has a .221 ISO against right-handed pitching. It's a good matchup for Rodriguez.
All we need to cover this leg of the same-game parlay is a double or two singles from Rodriguez.
Padres Moneyline
While I expect Gilbert to pitch well for the most part, Musgrove is also a good pitcher. Musgrove has allowed just one earned run in his last two starts combined. After starting the season on the injured list, it looks like Musgrove is coming into his own.
The Padres also have a star-studded lineup with Tatis Jr., Bogaerts, Juan Soto and Manny Machado, and they have the third-best bullpen by ERA this season with a 3.11 bullpen ERA.
I like the Padres to pull out the victory at home in this one to close out the same-game parlay.
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